XM无法为美国居民提供服务。

Market Comment – Dollar remains strong ahead of key data, yen surges



  • Dollar keeps marching north, PMIs on tap

  • Yen extends rally as traders unwind carry trades

  • Aussi and kiwi slide on China concerns, loonie awaits BoC

  • Stocks trade in the red, tech earnings in the spotlight

Traders continue to buy the US dollar

The dollar traded higher against all but one of its major peers on Tuesday and continued to do so today. The exception was the Japanese yen.

With Fed fund futures suggesting little change in market expectations about the Fed’s future course of action, and Treasury yields sliding, it seems that the dollar’s strength may be the result of momentum buying following Friday’s global IT outage, despite the issue being quickly fixed.

Whether the rally will continue may depend on today’s flash PMIs for July, but also on tomorrow’s first estimate of US GDP for Q2. Friday’s core PCE price index may be also closely monitored.

Whether the rally will continue may depend on today’s flash PMIs for July

The Eurozone PMIs have already been released, coming in below expectations and hurting somewhat the euro as the results corroborate the case of a September rate cut by the ECB.

Yen surges to a seven-week high

The yen extended its rally, hitting its highest level in seven weeks against its US counterpart. After hitting a 38-year low of 161.96 at the start of the month, the Japanese currency entered a strong recovery mode, initially aided by suspected intervention, but also due to the intervention leading traders to unwind their carry trades.

The Japanese currency entered a strong recovery mode, initially aided by suspected intervention, but also due to the intervention leading traders to unwind their carry trades

Recent remarks by a senior Japanese politician that the Bank of Japan should be clearer in indicating its intention to normalize policy, may have also helped. The BoJ meets next week, on July 31, and the market is seeing a 57% chance for another 10bps rate hike.

Chinese concerns hit aussie, kiwi; BoC awaited

The aussie and the kiwi extended their tumble triggered after Chinese growth figures missed their forecasts last week and intensified by surprise rate cuts by the PBoC on Monday.

Along with rising expectations of a ceasefire in Gaza, growing concerns about demand in China weighed on oil prices, as well as on bellwether commodities such as iron ore and copper.

The Canadian dollar traded on the back foot as well ahead of today’s BoC decision, with the market being almost 90% confident that officials will proceed with a back-to-back 25bps rate cut. Therefore, a rate cut on its own is unlikely to shake the loonie. Traders may quickly turn their attention to any hints on whether the easing cycle will continue in September as well. If they get enough dovish signals, the loonie is likely to suffer.

If they get enough dovish signals, the loonie is likely to suffer

Wall Street rally in question amid earnings results

All three of Wall Street’s main indices closed slightly in the red onTuesday, with the futures market pointing to more losses ahead of today’s open, despite both Tesla and Alphabet recording positive revenue numbers for Q2.

Perhaps this was due to Tesla reporting its smallest profit margin in more than five years, and due to the bar being set so high for Alphabet that the modest beat was not enough to propel the stock higher.

Moving forward, more earnings from tech giants may be very important in determining whether the rally on Wall Street will continue or whether stocks are indeed overvalued.

免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限,并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容,但无意进行任何更改或扩展,也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限,将受下列条款与条例约束:(i) 条款与条例;(ii) 风险提示;以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意,网站所提供的所有讯息,仅限一般资讯用途。此外,XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成,也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。

所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。

本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容,包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接,皆保持不变,并作为一般市场评论所提供,而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解,XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯,更多详情请点击 这里

风险提示: 您的资金存在风险。杠杆商品并不适合所有客户。请详细阅读我们的风险声明