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评论与分析

XM市场研究 - 11小时前

Quick Brief – BoE keeps rates on hold; pound likes the news

BoE keeps rates stable at 5.0%; reduces gilt holdings as expected Policymakers remain worried about inflation risks GBPUSD jumps into the 1.3300 region  The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold at 5.0% as expected on Thursday by a majority of 8-1 versus 7-2 analysts predicted. Having kicked off its easing cycle with a normal 25bps rate cut back in August, the central bank judged that a gradual approach on the pace of rate reductions is more appropriate until inflat
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XM市场研究 - 14小时前

Quick Brief – Fed surprises with a 50bps rate cut

Fed announces a 50bps cut with more easing to come in 2024 Dollar suffers a bit; US equities finish Wednesday’s session in the red The Fed surprised the markets with an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps, despite still forecasting a relatively tight labour market. The accompanying statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference was relatively balanced and kept the door open to further easing down the line.
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XM市场研究 - 14小时前

Daily Comment – Fed goes big with first rate cut; BoE takes the torch

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch It has begun! The Fed decided to kickstart this easing cycle with a bold 50bps rate cut, and to flag more reductions before the turn of the year. The new dot plot pointed to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024, which translates into two quarter-point cuts at each of the remain
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XM市场研究 - 1天前

Quick Brief – It’s Fed time!

Will the Fed cut interest rates by 25bps or 50bps? A 25bps reduction could be the wiser choice But there are upside risks even in the case of a 50bps cut The much-awaited FOMC decision has finally arrived. In a few hours, the Committee will make known to the world whether it has decided to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. According to Fed funds futures, the probability of a bolder 50bps reduction currently rests at around 55%, with the remaining 45% pointing to a quart
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Daily Comment – Let the Fed rate cuts begin

Dollar trades indecisively ahead of important Fed decision Investors assign a strong 60% chance for a 50bps cut Wall Street and gold traders also on the edge of their seats Pound rebounds on sticky UK inflation Fed to press the rate cut button The dollar rebounded against most of its major peers on Tuesday but resumed its slide early today as traders appear reluctant to assume a clear direction ahead of the very important Fed decision later today, when the Committee is expecte
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Quick Brief – UK inflation unchanged at 2.2% ahead of BoE decision

UK CPI remains at 2.2% y/y in August but core rate ticks up Services CPI also quickens slightly as BoE seen holding rates   The UK’s inflation data for August was largely in line with expectations, changing little in terms of rate cut expectations for tomorrow when the Bank of England is due to announce its latest policy decision. The headline CPI rate held steady at 2.2% y/y as expected, but core CPI increased from 3.3% to 3.6% y/y, beating forecasts of 3.5%.
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Quick Brief – US retail sales surprise to the upside

Retail sales rose by 0.1% m/m versus 1.1% before Retail control group up 0.3% m/m as projected Dollar gains some ground Following an upwardly revised 1.1% spike in July, retail sales in the US increased by 0.1% month-over-month in August, surpassing estimates of a 0.2% fall. The retail sales control group remained unchanged at 0.3%. The retail sales data is crucial as it reflects consumer demand, which is a key factor in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Quick Brief – Oil pulls back as traders lock gaze on Fed

Supply concerns help oil recover But demand worries are far from vanished Traders liquidate positions ahead of Fed meeting Oil prices have been in a recovery mode since Wednesday, perhaps on supply concerns after Hurricane Francine hit the US Gulf of Mexico, as well as expectations of lower US crude stockpiles. That said, prices are pulling back today, perhaps as participants considered the aforementioned developments as temporary variables in the oil equation, remaining worried a
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Daily Comment – Stocks extend gains as a 50bps Fed cut becomes more likely

Stocks in the green as a 50bps Fed rate cut is expected US retail sales today could prolong dollar’s weakness Loonie could suffer from another weak CPI report Gold remains bid as US yields continue to drop 50bps Fed rate cut is now the main scenario Markets continue to dance to the tune of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Chances of a 50bps rate cut got a strong boost yesterday with the market currently pricing in a 67% probability that history will repeat itself and the Fed wi
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XM市场研究 - 4天前

Daily Comment – Slow start to the week ahead of the Fed meeting 

Mixed movements in FX but the yen remains on the front foot Stocks recorded their best weekly performance of 2024 Another assassination attempt against Trump Bitcoin suffers while gold reaches a new all-time high Stocks are in anticipation mode A very important week has commenced with the US equity markets digesting last week’s impressive performance.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Dollar sinks, gold surges as 50bps Fed cut back in the picture

Soft US PPI and reports of Fed dilemma revive bets of 50bps cut Dollar plunges as yields fall, pushing gold to new all-time high Euro climbs as ECB trims rates but does not signal October cut Fed rate cut expectations swing wildly Expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September had all been priced out by investors.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Quick Brief – Gold hits new record as rate cut fever takes hold

Gold surges after ECB rate cut and soft US PPI Sets new record as Fed poised to join rate-cut club Gold has finally smashed its previous all-time high of $2,531.61/oz to surpass the $2,550 mark. The precious metal had been poking and prodding at the $2,530 region since late August only to be held back by not-so-terrible US data. Nothing’s changed when it comes to the US economy to propel gold higher by more than 1.50% today.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Quick brief – ECB cuts interest rates by 25bps as expected

ECB cuts interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% ahead of next week's FOMC policy meeting EURUSD takes a slight boost as policymakers maintain a data-dependent approach   The ECB cut its refinancing deposit rate for the second time by 25bps to 3.5% and slashed its marginal lending facility rate by 60bps to 3.90%. The latter was a technical adjustment.
XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Dollar firms after CPI, euro awaits ECB, techs lead equities rebound

US dollar edges up after CPI report wipes out 50-bps rate cut bets Euro stuck on the backfoot in wait for ECB decision Wall Street rebound gathers pace as tech stocks rally Mixed CPI report disappoints US inflation fell to the lowest since February 2021 in August, but the bigger-than-expected drop in the headline figure was overshadowed by an acceleration in the monthly core measure.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Quick Brief – US CPI data holds clue to upcoming Fed decision

US CPI climbed to 2.5% from 2.9% before 85% probability for 25bps rate cut Dollar rises ahead major currencies The release of the August US CPI data captured the attention of traders. The headline figure showed a slowdown to 2.5% from 2.9%, marking the lowest annual growth rate since February 2021. Meanwhile, the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.2%.
XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation  US presidential debate dominates headlines Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally Stocks are in anticipation mode US equity indices were mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 index recording another green day and the Dow Jones mimicking the European stock indices’ negative performance.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Quick Brief – Oil prices continue to dive after OPEC+ monthly report

OPEC+ anticipates increase of only 2.03 million bpd in 2024 WTI crude oil remains in strong bearish tendency Oil prices have fallen sharply since the start of September, with OPEC+ announcing today a second consecutive downward adjustment to its global oil demand growth projection for 2024. The revised projection anticipates an increase of 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd), lower than the previous estimate of 2.11 million bpd.
XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Equities rebound but face danger from US presidential debate  

Equities turn positive, but sentiment is fragile US presidential debate today could prove market moving UK labour market data supports the pound Bitcoin gains as risk sentiment improves, gold is range-bound Stocks breathe better US equity markets recorded gains in yesterday’s session, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and euro/dollar dropped close to 1.1030 despite the fact that most participants remain uncertain about next week’s Fed rate cut size and confus
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Daily Comment – Dollar and equities rebound from NFP-led losses as focus turns to US CPI

US jobs report adds to slowdown fears but provides no clarity about Fed policy Dollar whipsaws while stocks tumble as ‘September effect’ takes hold But risk sentiment improves ahead of US CPI report and ECB decision Signs of optimism after NFP bloodbath Markets began the second week of September in a somewhat more upbeat mood as US slowdown jitters were put on hold even as inflation data out of China pointed to persistently weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Quick Brief – US jobs bounce back less than expected, dollar slips

US economy adds 142k jobs in August versus forecast of 160k But unemployment rate dips as wage growth accelerates   Nonfarm payrolls bounced back in August, rising by 142k, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as expected. However, the payrolls figure is below the consensus forecast of 160k jobs and the prior month’s reading of 114k was revised down to 89k, feeding doubts about the health of the US economy.
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