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前瞻分析

XM市场研究 - 3天前

Is the BoJ on hold until December's meeting? – Preview

BoJ expects no change Ueda comments may provide insight USDJPY remains above 140.00 despite a severe sell-off BoJ interest rate decision on Friday at 03:00 GMT BoJ decision to keep interest rate steady At its meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to keep its monetary policy position unchanged.  Most market watchers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its target range for short-term interest rates at 0% to 1%.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Will the Fed cut by 25 bps or 50 bps? – Preview

Fed is expected to cut rates, but is it too late to the game? Intense speculation about size of cut as markers lean towards 50 bps New dot plot will also be crucial in Wednesday’s decision at 18:00 GMT Fed to join rate-cut club The timing of the Fed’s first interest rate cut of the cycle has been the dominant market theme all year, but since the summer, the narrative has changed to the size of the cut, not when.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

EURUSD speeds up to test 1.1100 area as debate over a bold Fed rate cut continues USDJPY hits 14-month low; BoJ awaited to give direction on rate hikes GBPUSD shifts to the upside ahead of CPI data and BoE rate decision   FOMC rate decision --> EURUSD The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the question is not if, but by how much it will cut interest rates.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Could BoE surprise with a rate cut on Thursday? – Preview

BoE meeting concludes on Thursday, the day after the Fed Economists assign an almost zero chance of a rate cut Wednesday’s CPI and the Fed rate cut could lead to a surprise BoE move Pound to benefit from an uneventful meeting BoE will announce its rate decision on Thursday The Bank of England is joining the chorus of the central bank meetings on Thursday.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Week Ahead – Fed to cut interest rates, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals Let the Fed cuts begin Since the July US employment report, which sparked fears of recession, investors have been trying to figure out the size of the potential rate cut the Fed will deliver at its September gathering, and the moment of truth has finally come.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

ECB policy meeting: another rate cut and emphasis on September’s data – Preview

ECB widely expected to deliver a second rate cut to 3.50% September’s data could be important for October’s meeting EURUSD looks bearish; next support could develop near 1.0990     Spotlight turns to economic growth too Inflation is no longer the sole focus, as economic growth has gained equal importance, athough central banks still prioritize maintaining symmetrical price stability around 2.0%.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Could US CPI tip the balance in favour of a 50bps Fed rate cut? – Preview

Market is digesting last week’s US labour market data The August CPI report could fuel 50bps rate cut expectations Dollar weakness could continue if inflation surprises to the downside The US inflation report will be published at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday Markets are preparing for the first Fed rate cut At the recent Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chairman Powell indirectly pre-announced the September 18 rate cut and highlighted the importance of the labour market in the current
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

ECB’s rate cut is expected with EURUSD staying below 1.1200 US CPI data may be another sign before Fed’s decision GBPUSD may plunge further if UK employment data disappoint ECB interest rate decision --> EURUSD Several important economic data releases and events may affect market sentiment in the next few days, following a gloomy week.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Will the NFP take a September double Fed cut off the table? – Preview

Fed fund futures suggest a 40% chance of a 50bps September cut Powell’s Jackson Hole speech adds importance to jobs data US employment report scheduled for Friday at 13:30 GMT   Investors see increasing chance of 50bps cut The dollar had a rough time in August, underperforming against all its major counterparts as market participants remained convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates by around 105 basis points by the end of the year.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

BoC rate decision: Third rate cut on the way – Preview

BoC could easily cut interest rates for the third time on Wednesday  Macro data favors additional easing but will it be a continuous process? USDCAD needs a close above 1.3585 to gain fresh bullish momentum   The easing cycle has more room to go The Bank of Canada (BoC) is in the front of the global easing cycle. Having cut interest rates twice in a row, the central bank is widely expected to announce its third reduction on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT, but it won’t stop there.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

USDJPY aims to break above 20-SMA ahead of the NFP report. Will it be successful this time? USDCAD stops at 5-month low as the focus turns to the BoC rate decision AUDUSD hangs near 8-month high; Australian GDP is on the calendar   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs --> USDJPY USDJPY is looking for fresh buying as it is still striving for a close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and beyond the 146.00 number.
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XM市场研究 - 3周前

Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Weekly Technical Outlook – US dollar index, EURUSD, USDJPY

US Core PCE index could attract greater attention with an impact on dollar index Eurozone flash CPI closer to ECB’s target; EURUSD unlocks 1.1200 Japan’s Tokyo CPI might stay put; USDJPY heads south US core PCE inflation --> US dollar index   The release of the US Core PCE price index for July this Friday will provide crucial insights into the underlying inflation trends.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Week Ahead – PCE inflation eyed as Fed lays groundwork for September cut

Focus to stay on the Fed as PCE inflation to be week’s main highlight Eurozone inflation data to be crucial for ECB rate cut hopes Australian and Tokyo CPI, plus Canadian GDP also on the agenda Will PCE inflation disappoint dovish expectations? The Fed’s long-anticipated dovish pivot is upon us and markets are bracing for the first US rate cut of this cycle at the September 17-18 meeting.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Could Fed chief Powell finally reveal his hand at Jackson Hole? – Preview

The Jackson Hole Symposium will be held on August 22-24 Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Friday at 14:00 GMT Markets expect a dovish tone in support of a September rate cut Fed minutes and PMI surveys to set the scene Markets are gearing up for the Jackson Hole Symposium The much talked-about Jackson Hole Symposium is just a few days away with the markets anxiously waiting for Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Could eurozone PMI surveys cement the September ECB rate cut? – Preview  

Markets are preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium Eurozone data supports another ECB rate cut PMI surveys for the euro area will be published on Thursday Euro remains on the back foot against the pound The Jackson Hole gathering to break the summer lull Whilst ECB members are probably enjoying their hard-earned holiday break, the countdown to the Jackson Hole Symposium and the crucial September central banks’ meetings has already started.
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XM市场研究 - 1个月前

Week Ahead – Jackson Hole and PMIs enter the spotlight

As recession fears ease, investors lock gaze on Jackson Hole Eurozone and UK PMIs to affect ECB and BoE expectations Canadian inflation could back third consecutive BoC cut Japan’s Nationwide CPI data also on the agenda Jackson Hole to test overly dovish Fed cut bets Following the unjustified panic triggered by the weaker-than-expected NFP report for July, investors have taken a calmer stance, thereafter, reevaluating their aggressive Fed rate cut bets as the incoming data s
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XM市场研究 - 1个月前

Asian markets bounce back; eyes on local data, not just US CPI – Preview

Asian equities extend rebound ahead of key data Japanese GDP, Aussie jobs and Chinese indicators on the agenda Any upsets could roil the fragile sentiment A cautious rebound for stocks Stock markets in Asia have not been immune to the global selloff in August amid the unwinding of the yen carry trade and renewed fears about a US recession.
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XM市场研究 - 1个月前

The calmer markets could refocus on economic releases Rich UK data calendar could question BoE’s recent rate cut Wednesday’s headline inflation to see a small acceleration Pound is trying to recover from the BoE-induced underperformance Markets to refocus on data Following a rather eventful period, market participants are feeling slightly calmer at the beginning of this week and hence have the chance to refocus on the real economy.
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