Hungarian central bank seen cutting base rate by 25 bps next week
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?s=GCR01+46+D&st=Menu+G+C Reuters Hungary central bank rate forecasts
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=HUCPIAP Reuters Hungary average inflation forecasts
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=HUGDPAP Reuters Hungary GDP forecasts
By Gergely Szakacs
BUDAPEST, Sept 20 (Reuters) -The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is widely expected to cut its base rate by another 25 basis points to 6.5% next Tuesday after a rebound in inflation forced it to temporarily halt its easing cycle last month following 15 consecutive rate reductions.
The NBH, which has slashed borrowing costs by a combined 1,125 bps in its current easing cycle, left the door open to further easing depending on inflation developments and the policy course of major central banks.
Data published since the bank's August meeting showed Hungarian inflation, which scaled the European Union's highest levels of more than 25% in the first quarter of last year, falling to a three-and-a-half year low of 3.4% in August.
A decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its main rate by a larger-than-usual 50 bps this week could also give Hungarian rate-setters - who are keeping an eye on global central bank moves - greater confidence that they can resume the policy easing cycle.
"We now expect the NBH to ease at both its September and October meetings, as opposed to only in October previously, on the back of more favourable global financial conditions," Morgan Stanley economist Georgi Deyanov said.
"As such, we now expect the base rate to reach 6.25% at end-2024 and 4.75% at end-2025."
All 16 economists polled between Sept. 16 and 20 expect the bank to deliver a 25-bp rate cut next Tuesday. Even so, Hungary's 6.5% benchmark rate HUINT=ECI would still be the highest in the EU alongside that of neighbouring Romania.
Analysts see the Hungarian base rate falling to 6.25% by the end of 2024, in line with the central bank's guidance that there might be scope for one or two 25-bp rate cuts this year.
Reporting by Gergely Szakacs
Editing by Gareth Jones
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