Australia inflation eases in July, but progress still slow
Recasts, adds analysts' comments in paragraphs 6-7 and 14-15
By Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Aug 28 (Reuters) -Australian inflation slowed to a four-month low in July as government rebates on electricity bills kicked in, but progress on tempering price gains elsewhere disappointed and led markets to pare back the chance of a near-term cut in interest rates.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 3.5% in July, down from 3.8% in June, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed on Wednesday.
The figure was slightly above forecasts of 3.4%, leading markets to slightly lengthen the odds of a first easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia in November to 48.4%, from 58% before.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 rose 0.1% to $0.6803, about the highest this year, and the three-year bond yield YTTc1 was up 4 ticks to 3.559%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI was flat in July from June as electricity prices fell 6.4%, and petrol dropped 2.6%, but rents, food and gas prices rose.
"July's inflation print is full of smoke and mirrors. At face value, the fight against inflation looks to have taken a massive step forward...but some of that improvement came from rebates that artificially lowered the cost of electricity," said Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody's Analytics.
"While that makes the headline inflation figure look a whole lot better, prices are ultimately unchanged."
Indeed, the slowdown in headline inflation was due to electricity subsidies from the federal and state governments, which began in the state of Queensland and Western Australia last month, with other states and Territories to follow from August, the statistics agency said.
It estimated that electricity prices in Julywould have risen 0.9%, excluding the rebates.
NO REAL READ ON SERVICES
The RBA has raised interest rates by 425 basis points to 4.35% since May 2022 to tame inflation. However, the slow decline in underlying inflation, which is only expected to return to the target band by the end of 2025, has led policymakers to rule out a near-term rate cut.
July's report - which is heavily skewed towards goods in the first month of the quarter - showed a closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, slowed to an annual 3.8%, from 4.1% in June.
The CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel dipped to 3.7%, the lowest reading since early 2022, compared with 4.0% previously.
Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at the National Australia Bank, said the July report showed there is not much further progress on goods disinflation.
"Unfortunately, there is no real read on the services side of the economy out of today's print, so it doesn't give you a comprehensive read, but at least on the goods side of the economy it suggests you're not making much progress."
Indeed, goods inflation was flat in the month.
Markets are still fully pricing in a rate cut this year, in part because the Federal Reserve is near-certain to start easing policy next month and more cuts are expected in Canada, Europe and New Zealand.
A surging Australian dollar, which is hovering close to the highest this year, should also help lower imported inflation.
Reporting by Wayne Cole and Stella Qiu; Editing by Jamie Freed and Jacqueline Wong
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
