Australia, NZ dlrs wary as US inflation to impact easing outlook
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 11 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars were on hold on Wednesday awaiting U.S. inflation figures that could affect the pace of policy easing there, while both currencies continued to lose ground to the safe-haven Japanese yen.
The Aussie was flat at $0.6656 AUD=D3, having barely moved overnight. Resistance lay at $0.6668 and $0.6767, with support at the 200-day moving average at $0.6617.
It also hit a one-month low of 94.10 yen AUDJPY= as investors scaled back on carry trades.
The kiwi dollar steadied at $0.6152 NZD=D3, having found support at $0.6125. Resistance comes in at $0.6183 and $0.6236.
Both of the resource-heavy currencies were weighed by weakness in commodity prices as oil sank to its lowest in three years amid concerns over Chinese demand.
The next test will be U.S. price data, where a soft number is needed to support the case for an outsized rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
Markets assume an aggressive Fed cut would put more pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to ease, which it has said is unlikely until next year.
Swaps imply around a 32% chance of a quarter-point cut in November and 78% for December. Some 103 basis points of easing is priced in by the end of 2025, compared to 258 basis points for the Fed. 0#RBAWATCH
Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, argues the RBA could move as early as November should jobs data due next week show the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% as he expects.
"Another lift in the unemployment rate will leave us more comfortable with our non-consensus call for the RBA to commence an easing cycle in Q4," said Aird. "If we see such an outcome we expect the RBA will soften its hawkish rhetoric at the September Board meeting."
"We expect around 125bp of policy easing by the end of 2025 that would take the cash rate to 3.10%."
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has already moved and is considered certain to cut in October and November, with a chance one of those will be 50 basis points. 0#RBNZWATCH
Markets currently see the 5.25% cash rate bottoming out at 3.0% late next year.
"If the RBNZ wants to remove the restrictiveness of interest rates, they need to go back to a neutral which is estimated to be around 2.75%," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.
"We think they'll need to go a little below to get things moving, so we expect to see twelve 25bp cuts, 300bps in total."
Reporting by Wayne Cole; editing by Miral Fahmy
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
