Australia, NZ dollars draw support from data surprises
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 19 (Reuters) -The Australian dollar recouped early losses on Thursday as an upbeat jobs report helped offset broad gains in its U.S. counterpart, while news on the New Zealand economy proved slightly less dire than feared.
The Aussie was back at $0.6765 AUD=D3, off a low of $0.6738. It had briefly been as high as $0.6820 overnight after the Federal Reserve cut U.S. rates by 50 basis points. Support lies around $0.6690 and $0.6621.
The kiwi dollar was a fraction lower at $0.6203 NZD=D3, having also failed to sustain a pop to $0.6267 overnight. It has support at $0.6180 and $0.6107.
Australian employment figures showed jobs jumped 47,500 in August, handily beating forecasts of a 25,000 gain for a third straight month. Unemployment held at 4.3% as expected as the workforce continued to grow rapidly.
The continued strength in hiring points to a still tight labour market and supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) case against the need for a near-term rate cut.
"Forward indicators of demand have cooled, but still suggest the market will remain relatively tight," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.
"This is good news for jobseekers and for the broader health of the economy," he added. "However, it does confirm our view that the RBA will not be able to ease rates until at least Q2 2025."
Investors remain more dovish, in part because most other developed world central banks have embarked on what are likely to be lengthy easing cycles. 0#RBAWATCH
Markets imply around a 30% chance of a quarter-point cut in November, and a 76% probability of a move in December.
In New Zealand, figures showed the economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, a bit better than the 0.4% fall expected but mainly because of a steep drop in imports.
The data merely confirmed the weakness of the economy and left the market pricing in a 100% chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in October.
Swaps also imply a 25% chance the 5.25% cash rate will be cut by 50 basis points.0#RBANZWATCH
"A rate cut in October is as close to a done deal as you get," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. "We'd advocate 50 bp, and again, 50 in November."
"We argue the RBNZ needs to get the cash rate below 4%, asap, as it takes up to 18 months for rate cuts to filter through the economy."
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Kim Coghill
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
