Can Trump weaken the dollar?
STOXX 600 up 0.7%
Kingfisher soars on results
Central banks in focus
Wall St futures inch up
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
CAN TRUMP WEAKEN THE DOLLAR?
The impact of U.S. presidential elections on the greenback is a topic of intense debate among analysts. With Donald Trump having clamoured for decades for a weaker dollar, some analysts are trying to assess whether he could debase the U.S. currency.
Barclays suggests that the answer is 'no', but they present three main potential strategies that could weaken the greenback.
Fiscal tightening is the 'first best'. It directly impacts the dollar via slower economic growth, lower interest rates, and less favourable capital flows.
"Unfortunately, it is a politically unpopular option, and neither presidential candidate is running on such a platform at present," Barclays strategists argue.
Eroding the Fed's independence could lead to lower real rates, higher inflation and a weaker currency.
"Leaving aside the institutional checks against such a possibility, however, the public's discomfort with inflation in the past few years suggests that the bar to a politically controlled Fed might be much higher than typically assumed or feared," Barclays strategists say.
The prospect of a new multilateral initiative, a new Plaza Accord -- a historic agreement among major economies to devalue the U.S. dollar struck in 1985 -- has also been considered a potentially more effective and less costly way.
"Assuming that such an arrangement can be put credibly in place, it is worth asking how much the dollar would devalue, whether the proposed devaluation could be deemed acceptable by U.S. trading partners," they add.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****
EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE HIGHER ON FED OPTIMISM CLICK HERE
YEN'S BIG WEEK BEGINS CLICK HERE
eu open https://tmsnrt.rs/3MOA4Ft
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
