Conservative BoE cut after Labour's budget would suit GBP
Sept 20 (Reuters) -Sterling may keep on riding high if the possibility of the Bank of England delivering a larger-than-expected 50 basis point interest rate cut in November remains negligible through next month's UK budget.
That budget, the first from the new Labour government since its July election victory, will be unveiled on Oct. 30 - eight days before the next BoE rate decision, when a 25 bps cut to 4.75% is widely expected.
Ultra-doves hoping the BoE might follow the Fed's lead and reduce rates by 50 bps on Nov. 7 were dealt a fresh blow by strong UK retail sales data on Friday, a day after the BoE's more-hawkish-than-expected rate hold.
The retail sales figures were published alongside data showing UK government debt rose to 100% of GDP last month, hours after a survey showed a plunge in UK consumer confidence.
GBP/USD climbed to a new 30-month peak of 1.3340 on the strong UK retail sales data, with GBP/EUR rising to a 25-month high of 1.1931.
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Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey
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