ECB leaves rates unchanged; Lagarde says September is 'wide open'
Adds Lagarde remarks, analyst comments; refreshes prices at 1322 GMT
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchangedon Thursday, and gave no hints as to what investors might expect at its next meeting, saying September was "wide open" and arguing inflation would stay above its target well into next year.
The euro dipped to$1.09208, from $1.0933 before Lagarde started speaking <EUR=EBS>. Government bond yields across the euro area pulled back slightly DE10YT=RR, IT10YT=RR, whileEurope's broad STOXX 600 share index .STOXX extended gains modestly --last up 0.6%on the day.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the monetary policy decision had been unanimous and reiterated the central bank's determination to be dependent on data, rather than on any single data point.
"The question of September and what we do in September is wide open," she said at the press conference.
COMMENTS:
SEEMA SHAH, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON:
"The ECB may have disappointed market observers who were hoping the central bank would lay out a clear policy path. But their refusal to pre-commit is a sound decision. Although inflation has come down significantly, there are some segments of price pressures that continue to look sticky and stubborn.
"Moreover, with the economy showing signs of a cyclical upturn, the euro area is not in dire need of aggressive, back-to-back rate cuts. The ECB has afforded itself the luxury of a more gradual, cautious approach to monetary easing."
STEFAN GERLACH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EFG BANK, ZURICH:
"After the communications failure at the June meeting – before which Governing Board members signalled that rates would be cut, only to have incoming data suggest that it would be better to leave policy unchanged – the press release avoided commenting on the outlook for interest rates. That was helpful."
"The ECB is finding a balance between sticky inflation and concerns about wage increases, which speak against cuts, and a worsening economic outlook which calls for lower rates. Political uncertainty in France is also not helpful."
"A weaker economy will slow inflation, setting the stage for lower rates. In central banking, there is safety in numbers. With the Fed likely to cut rates in September, the Governing Council will do so too. I expect another cut in December, or January."
SAMUEL ADAMS, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LONDON:
"Today’s lack of action does not mean, however, that the easing cycle has come to a halt. With signs that the economic recovery is already underway, the ECB can afford to accumulate more evidence that disinflation remains on track before lowering policy rates further.
"And while the recent inflation data is unlikely to have strengthened the Governing Council’s confidence much further, it remains consistent with a gradual easing of price pressures. This trend should allow the ECB to resume rate cuts in September and at a quarterly pace thereafter, in our view.
"Current returns on cash, while attractive, will not be around for much longer. We favour reducing holdings of cash and cash-like investments in favour of those that can offer more durable returns, such as a portfolio of quality bonds."
KYLE CHAPMAN, FX MARKETS ANALYST, BALLINGER GROUP, LONDON:
"The pause itself surprised no-one, of course, with markets having priced it at a near certainty. Data in the inter-meeting period had not supported the case for further cuts at this stage, with the renewed momentum in services inflation a good justification for caution.
"This statement represents a dramatic shift from the heavy signalling prior to June, and the central theme now is non-commitment."
"The picture will be much clearer by September, where a new set of projections should arm policymakers with enough confidence in the outlook to cut again."
MARK WALL, CHIEF EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH, LONDON:
"The ECB remains on course for a second rate cut in September. Despite some recent inflation data being less friendly, the ECB has excused some as one-offs and others as absorbed in profit margins. The ECB is taking comfort from the trends and looking through the noise, consistent with being ‘data dependent, not data-point dependent’."
YAEL SELFIN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KPMG, LONDON:
"Today’s statement was largely unchanged from last month, with the ECB striking a cautious tone and opting to limit any forward guidance. This will give the Governing Council flexibility in line with their data dependent approach ahead of the September meeting, in contrast to last month, when the ECB largely pre-committed to a cut.
"Limited data since the last meeting, alongside elevated short-term domestic inflationary pressures, made a pause today highly likely. Market pricing implied less than a 10% probability of a cut ahead of the meeting today. Nonetheless, the ECB will be wary of keeping rates in restrictive territory for too long, particularly with recent survey data signalling a slowdown in euro zone economic activity."
MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:
"The ECB is being more cautions than expected. In April, it prepared the markets for a 25-bp cut at the June meeting.
"However, there was no such explicit guidance for another move in September in today’s announcement."
"Let’s see if Lagarde keeps the door open to a move for a rate cut in September during the press conference. But this is clearly on the hawkish side."
JAN VON GERICH, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, NORDEA, HELSINKI:
"They (ECB policymakers) have been vague about what will happen going forward.
"Their base line is that there will be a cut in September and I think that's what we'll see if the data confirms the baseline they set out in June.
"I wouldn't expect any big signals at the press conference as we have a lot of data ahead of September."
ARNE PETIMEZAS, SENIOR ANALYST, AFS GROUP, AMSTERDAM
"As expected, the ECB simply repeated its assessment for inflation and growth from the June meeting. Furthermore, they still don't pre-commit to further rate cuts. However, as we’ve seen with the U.S. CPI release, the writing is on the wall. Inflation is in retreat, and disinflation will resume in the euro zone too. The Fed will cut in September, and I think the ECB will cut too. While during the presser Lagarde is unlikely to guide for a September cut, I think the undertones will. As such, a cut is likely that month."
Reporting by the Reuters Markets Team; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Amanda Cooper
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
