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FX rangebound ahead of US jobs data



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-FX rangebound ahead of US jobs data</title></head><body>

By Alan Charlish

WARSAW, Sept 6 (Reuters) -Central European currencies hovered around recent levels on Friday as markets awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls that may help shape expectations regarding the scale of a rate cut in September.

The data, which will be published at 1230 GMT, is expected to show the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs in August, compared with 114,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 4.2% from 4.3%.

"If payrolls fall below 100k today and unemployment surprisingly creeps higher, then we see a 50bp Fed cut in September becoming the market's base case, which would result in big USD losses," ING analysts said in a note.

A weaker dollar is generally positive for emerging market currencies as it makes riskier assets more attractive.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= firmed 0.09% against the euro to 4.279 as investors digested comments on Thursday from Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski.

The National Bank of Poland left its main interest rate on hold at 5.75% on Wednesday, meaning the cost of credit has been stable since October 2023.

Glapinski said in a press conference the following day that he hoped the Monetary Policy Council can start discussing interest rate cuts after next March, even if inflation is not expected to return to its target before 2026.

"Yesterday the central bank governor said exactly what the market is expecting to happen with interest rates next year... so I think yesterday's comments were neutral for the zloty," said Marcin Sulewski, CEE Economist at Ipopema Securities.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.19% weaker at 394.00, remaining in its range from recent days. Equilor analysts said in a note that the U.S. labour market data could cause bigger moves.

Romania's leu EURRON= was broadly stable at 4.973 after data showed that domestic demand and European Union funded investment drove a modest expansion in the Romanian economy in the second quarter.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was also little changed at 25.035, unmoved by industrial output which fell for a third straight month, highlighting the drag manufacturing is having on economic recovery.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1057 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0350

25.0410

+0.02%

-1.33%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

394.0000

393.2500

-0.19%

-2.74%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2790

4.2830

+0.09%

+1.53%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9730

4.9718

-0.02%

+0.03%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9700

117.0200

+0.04%

+0.24%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1586.32

1594.4500

-0.51%

+12.19%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

72068.79

72415.44

-0.48%

+18.89%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2349.61

2371.94

-0.94%

+0.28%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17528.75

17728.02

-1.12%

+14.04%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2990

-0.1280

+104bps

-9bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.4760

-0.0130

+142bps

+3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.7010

-0.0480

+153bps

-1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6990

-0.0810

+244bps

-5bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.0830

-0.0580

+303bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3120

-0.0470

+314bps

-1bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.88

3.54

3.26

4.35


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.51

6.08

5.58

6.50


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.78

5.37

4.87

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************







Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Jan Harvey

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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