Is the tide turning for European real estate?
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IS THE TIDE TURNING FOR EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE?
After high interest rates for longer brought down the European real estate sector, J.P.Morgan analysts believe that as the price of money goes down, transactions will likely rise again.
Confident management messaging at recent results that values were stabilizing across Europe was received with some skepticism from investors, these analysts said, but in the second half of the year they see room both for a return of transactions and growth in property values.
"Since June 2024, debt costs have come down, central banks have started to cut rates and more is expected here", they added in a note.
This week's European investment property data, tracking valuation points in cities from Amsterdam to Warsaw and from offices to hotels, showed that 48% posted capital growth in Q2, compared to 23% in Q1, JPM said.
Its top picks include France's Gecina GFCP.PA due to its "robust" prime Paris office portfolio and Spain's Merlin Properties MRL.MC as the 1.0 billion euro capital raise was "the catalyst to unlock significant value".
The broker would avoid Sweden's Castellum CAST.ST, citing its refinancing risks, and Belgium's VGP VGP1.BR as it sees better value in its logistics peers.
(Matteo Allievi)
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