ISM kicks off the dollar's big week
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Today's U.S. ISM manufacturing survey is the first major indicator out in a big week for U.S. data and, likely, the dollar.
Investors and the Federal Reserve are looking for reassurance that the path is clear to cut interest rates, and to gauge how quickly to cut. Traders have recently pared expectations for a 50-basis-point cut this month, and the dollar has steadied after a two-month selloff. FRX/FEDWATCH
Economists see the ISM USPMI=ECI at 47.5, an improvement from the previous month but still in contractionary territory below 50. The job market is seen adding 160,000 jobs USNFAR=ECI and the jobless rate USUNR=ECI ticking down to 4.2%.
Surprises on the low side will likely have the dollar testing recent lows, though in Asia caution and short covering had the dollar extending its recent rebound.
Asian currencies had rallied particularly strongly in anticipation of U.S. rate cuts giving regional economies more room to ease policy themselves and encourage growth.
Data in the Asia session showed Australian government spending rose in the June quarter, prompting National Australia Bank to upgrade its forecast for Wednesday's gross domestic product figure. South Korean inflation slowed to a three-and-a-half-year low, paving the way for imminent rate cuts.
In company news, Cathay Pacific 0293.HK cancelled flights while it inspected its Airbus AIR.PA A350 fleet following the failure of a Rolls Royce RR.L engine component.
And in Japan, a senior finance ministry official pushed back at speculation retail giant Seven & i Holdings 3382.T was seeking national security classification to fend off a buyout bid from Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard ATD.TO.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
Economics: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
US dollar slumps to 13-month low as Fed signals rate cut https://reut.rs/3MmUIw9
By Tom Westbrook; Editing by Christopher Cushing
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