Norway central bank to keep rates on hold this week, cut in December
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=NOINTR%3DECI poll data
Rate announcement due on Sept. 19
All analysts surveyed predict unchanged rate of 4.50%
Majority of analysts eye December cut, some say March
OSLO, Sept 16 (Reuters) -Norway's central bank will keep its key policy interest rate unchanged this week at a 16-year high of 4.50%, all 27 economists in a Reuters poll said, as investors look for signs of when Norges Bank may eventually begin to cut borrowing costs.
The central bank has said its monetary policy must balance above-target inflation, exacerbated by a falling currency, with a cooling economy that now sees low overall growth.
Last month the central bank said Norway would keep rates on hold for "some time" to combat inflation, and it is expected to say on Thursday whether this means a cut could come by year-end or would wait until next year.
Norges Bank's most recent forecast, released in June, called for three rate reductions in 2025, each by a quarter percentage point to end the year at 3.75%, with the first of those cuts slated for March at the earliest.
The forecast will be updated on Thursday, and a majority of analysts in the Sept. 12-16 poll now expect a cut in December this year followed by four more cuts by the end of 2025 to a policy rate of 3.25%.
Market pricing meanwhile predicts as much as seven rate cuts by the end of 2025, brokers said, reflecting expectations of steady rate reductions abroad, including by the U.S. Federal Reserve which will give a policy update on Wednesday.
HAWKISH SURPRISE?
But some analysts cautioned the weak currency could force Norges bank to hold back to avoid a further inflation-inducing drop against the euro and the dollar.
"The market is in for a hawkish surprise, in our view," Handelsbanken said in a Sept. 12 note to clients, adding that the most likely timing of a cut was in March of next year.
"The rate path will be lowered somewhat, but not to the extent that the market is anticipating," it added.
Norway's core inflation, which strips out changing energy prices and taxes, eased to 3.2% year on year in August, down from 3.3% in July, in line with analysts' expectations but still well above the central bank's 2.0% target.
Reporting by Terje Solsvik, polling by Pranoy Krishna in Bengaluru; Editing by Hugh Lawson
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
