Oasis-style mega-gigs may increasingly slide away
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
By George Hay
LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) -Noel and Liam Gallagher’s long-awaited comeback has supersonic timing. The 400 million pounds in sales and associated revenues the Mancunian brothers stand to generate by reforming iconic 1990s UK band Oasis in 2025 puts them in a similar bracket to Taylor Swift, who last year undertook the first tour to gross over $1 billion. Given industry changes ushered in by music’s streaming era, coining it via live performances is a logical step – but the vogue for superstar setpieces may not live forever.
Recorded music revenues have long been in decline: in the United States, inflation-adjusted sales fell from $27 billion in 1999 to $17 billion in 2023 as consumers increasingly paid a flat rate to the likes of Spotify to stream whatever they wanted instead of buying physical records. That’s fuelled rapid growth in the live market. Live Nation Entertainment LYV.N, a U.S. ticketing group, has seen sales nearly double since 2019, and Goldman Sachs reckons the $35 billion of global live music revenues expected in 2024 may exceed $50 billion by 2030. Instead of getting most of their income from record sales, big-name artists now get 50% to 70% of their income from ticket sales, 20% from recorded music sales, and 10% each from merchandise and sponsorships, according to MIDiA Research.
There’s a finite number of really massive acts, though. The sweet spot, enjoyed by the likes of Swift, Beyoncé, Coldplay and indeed Oasis, is to have become globally famous before streaming took off about a decade ago. That can also ensure a solid cohort of married-with-children fans in their 40s who formed the key audience in the 1990s or early 2000s, and who have the most disposable income now. Younger listeners, who may be the first group’s kids, tend to be interested in music from 20 to 30 years ago but no older.
The flipside is that the next megastars are not being nurtured – smaller acts just starting out are getting squeezed as ticket spend goes on the inflated top end of the market. Algorithm-fuelled streaming leads to more fragmented audiences, and the shelf life of big hits is shorter. With the number of listeners not keeping pace with the supply of new streaming acts and podcasts, artists may need to acquiesce to even less money from distributing their work.
The current pipeline of superstar mega-gigs, plus the appeal of multi-act festivals, will help live revenues grow this decade. And it’s perfectly possible that the rest of the 2020s unearths a rock ’n’ roll star so compelling that they can sell out Wembley stadium many days in a row. Still, by the 2040s it’s likely that the current crop of acts aiming for epic paydays via Oasis-style cultural setpieces – like, say, Olivia Rodrigo – will have a tougher job. While Oasis’s 2025 reappearance will be a money-spinner, the wider phenomenon could increasingly fade away.
Follow @gfhay on X
CONTEXT NEWS
British rock group Oasis on Aug. 29 announced three extra concert dates in the UK for their reunion tour next year.
The band said they were adding the extra gigs due to “unprecedented demand” following registration for tickets pre-sale. They will now play 17 dates next summer.
Birmingham City University estimates that the initial 14 dates could bring in 400 million pounds in ticket sales and other add-ons, with brothers Liam and Noel Gallagher in line to each earn 50 million pounds, the Guardian reported on Aug. 27.
Graphic: Overall, global live music revenues may grow this decade https://reut.rs/3MrP5wM
Editing by Neil Unmack and Oliver Taslic
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
