Rate cuts to benefit building materials sector, HSBC say
** HSBC says a possible turn in the interest rate cycle should lead to a recovery in residential demand in 2025, boosting building materials producers
** The analysts expect rate cuts of 150 basis points in the U.S. and Europe from September 2024 to end-2025
** HSBC forecasts light building materials producers' EBIT/EBITDA to grow 8% in 2025, with heavy materials makers lagging behind without energy cost deflation benefits
** It prefers Saint-Gobain SGOB.PA and Sika SIKA.S in light materials due to their high residential and renovation exposure, and the former's low valuation
** It likes CRH CRH.N and Cemex CEMEXCPO.MX in heavy materials thanks to their high U.S. exposure, and low valuation multiples for the latter
** It upgrades Vicat VCTP.PA to "buy" from "hold" after a significant share price underperformance since October 2022 lows, and says the fall in energy prices should benefit its EBITDA margin recovery in 2024-25 in emerging markets, while also pointing to improved debt situation
** It downgrades Heidelberg Materials HEIG.DE to "hold" from "buy" as it expects weak pricing outlook in emerging markets and continued negative price/cost spread to lead to slow EBITDA progression
** Shares in Vicat are up 3.9%, while Heidelberg Materials falls 1.5% by 1110 GMT
Reporting by Michal Aleksandrowicz
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