Simon Property slips after long-time bull downgrades
** Simon Property Group's SPG.N shares drop as much as 2.1% to $163.87 amid broader markets weakness on Tues after Piper Sandler downgraded commercial REIT to "neutral"
** SPG last down 1.4% at $165 and among biggest losers in S&P 500 Real Estate sector .SPLRCR, which is up 0.2%
** S&P 500 .SPX down 1.5% on the session
** Piper Sandler anticipates slower earnings growth for SPG versus shopping center rivals over the next 2 years, noting this represents the first time it hasn't had an "overweight" rating since late 2009
** Growing headwind comes from more refinancing of low coupon debt to higher rate, Piper said, adding it now assumes a 5% refinancing rate vs prior 6% projection
** Brokerage still positive on management's multiple levers to drive revenue and increase efficiency, but compared to shopping centers, it sees "better near-term growth in the latter driven by faster occupancy and cash NOI (net operating income) growth"
** It forecasts 4% NOI growth for SPG in 2026 vs 5% growth for strip centers on avg and Macerich MAC.N
** Piper chops PT on SPG by $15 to $175 vs Street median of $160, per LSEG data
** Now, 6 of 18 brokerages rate SPG "strong buy" or "buy", rest "hold"
** Including move on Tues, shares up ~16% YTD. SPLRCR up ~9%in 2024, while SPX up 16.6%
(Lance Tupper is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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