Size of looming Riksbank rate cut set to be a close call
Sept 20 (Reuters) -The Swedish central bank meets next week and is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point rate cut. However, the arguments for a 50-basis point reduction could be stronger than many think.
The Swedish domestic inflation and growth backdrop, coupled with falling interest rates abroad, make the case for a larger cut. After a period of high inflation, CPIF now looks likely to continue to undershoot the official 2.0% target and be too low for the Riksbank.
However, analysts point to Riksbank language that says monetary policy will be eased gradually. Although current developments support lower rates, the strengthening of the Swedish crown could be dented if the central bank speeds up its easing cycle.
EUR/SEK has lost over 4% in value since July and, despite a bout of sideways price action this week, remains on course to retrace all the 11.1450-11.7780 June-July 2024 rally. While the cross is below the 200-day moving average, 11.4030, the risk is skewed to the downside.
On balance, the Riksbank will likely cut by 25-basis points next Wednesday - but a half-point move should not be ruled out.
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EUR/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3XQ9IJs
Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey
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