Sweden's crown vulnerable but showing resilience
Sept 12 (Reuters) -The Swedish crown remains vulnerable but, despite a bearish backdrop, is beginning to show signs of resilience versus the euro, helped by technical factors.
Falling Swedish inflation, 1.2% y/y CPIF in August, a deteriorating labour market and interest rate cuts abroad continue to support the Riksbank's dovish stance. Three 25-basis point rate cuts are expected before the year is out with the possibility of a 50-basis point drop when the central bank meets on September 24-25. However, with EUR/SEK still at high levels, a 25-basis point rate cut this month might be the safer bet.
Technically, EUR/SEK has encountered strong resistance in the form of an Ichimoku cloud base on the daily chart. There have been three consecutive failures to hold a cloud breach this week. The cloud base is at 11.4615 and is backed up by the 100-day moving average at 11.4790. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, taken off the 11.7780-11.3130 July 30-Aug. 29 drop, comes in at 11.4906. The recent upswing in EUR/SEK remains intact while above the 200-day moving average, 11.4005. EUR bulls will also be encouraged by a bullish moving average cross over between the 10 and 200-day averages.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3XDCDjT
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