Sweden's Riksbank could surprise the market
Sept 9 (Reuters) -A half-point interest rate cut shouldn’t be ruled out when the Riksbank holds its next policy meeting on Sept 24-25.
Swedish inflation is low, core prices rose 1.7% in July - below the 2.0% Riksbank target, and a further drop in CPIF is expected when August inflation data is released later this week. A Reuters poll consensus is for annual CPIF to hit 1.3% in August while the central bank estimate is for an unchanged 1.7% return.
A warm August brought negative electricity prices within the Nord Pool, a leading power market in Europe. Combined with lower fuel prices the electricity price drop is likely to lower CPIF by around 0.2%.
The flip side to the good inflation news is a deteriorating labour market and fragile economic growth.
The Riksbank is expected to cut three more times this year, taking its key interest rate to 2.75%. With EUR/SEK beginning to trend higher, a 25-basis point rate cut this month might be the safe bet but there is an outside chance of a 50-basis point drop followed by two further 25-basis points cuts before the year is out.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/SEK daily Ichimoku chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3MXYA7j
Sweden CPIF inflation chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4dUzyBw
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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