Sweden's Riksbank holds key rate, may cut three times in second half
Riksbank holds rate at 3.75% as expected
Sees chance of extra rate cut this year
Swedish crown weakens on decision
Adds analyst comment in paragraphs 8 and 9 , currency reaction
By Simon Johnson
STOCKHOLM, June 27 (Reuters) -Sweden's central bank held its key interest rate at 3.75% as expected on Thursday, and said that if inflation prospects remained the same, the policy rate could be cut two or three times during the second half of the year.
In May, when it cut the policy rate for the first time in eight years, the Riksbank had said it expected two more cuts in 2024, and the Swedish crown weakened against the euro on the more dovish tone from central bank. EURSEK=, .KIXI
"Given that inflation is fundamentally developing favourably, economic activity is assessed to be somewhat weaker, and the krona exchange rate is a little stronger, the forecast for the policy rate has been adjusted down somewhat," the Riksbank said in a statement.
"If inflation prospects remain the same, the policy rate can be cut two or three times during the second half of the year."
Headline inflation, which peaked at over 10% late in 2022, is close to the central bank's 2% target and likely to fall further.
The Riksbank cut its inflation forecast for this year to an average of 2.0% from 2.3%, and expects it to remain under the target level through 2026. Inflation averaged 6.0% in 2023.
In addition, the economy remained weak, with many households struggling with mortgage payments, making rate cuts a welcome prospect. EURSEK=, .KIXI
"We stick to our forecast of three additional cuts this year, but bring forward the second cut to August," Swedbank said in a note. "We forecast that the policy rate will be cut to down to 2.00% by the end of 2025, which is our estimate of a normal level."
The Riksbank, however, also struck a note of caution.
The pace of inflation picked up slightly in May, highlighting the risk for setbacks, while the start of policy easing in the United States has been delayed. The European Central Bank is also wary of sticky price pressures.
Sweden's neighbour Norway last week pushed back its prediction for a rate cut and now sees policy easing starting early next year.
"There are risks linked, for instance, to inflation abroad, geopolitical unease, the krona exchange rate and the recovery in the Swedish economy that can lead to the policy rate being either higher or lower than forecast," the Riksbank said.
The central bank will announce its next policy decision on Aug. 20.
Swedish rates and inflation: http://tmsnrt.rs/1qEN4Rz
Reporting by Terje Solsvik, Anna Ringstrom, Niklas Pollard and Simon Johnson; Editing by Niklas Pollard and Bernadette Baum
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
