There could be a sharp shock coming for EUR/NOK
July 24 (Reuters) -A fall in the oil price and possibly an overreaction to softer Norwegian inflation data has seen the crown weaken significantly versus the euro in recent weeks but the move is beginning to look overdone.
From a technical perspective the steep upswing in EUR/NOK since the middle of June, a 6.5% gain, risks toppling over. The reversal, when it comes, could be equally rapid and with magnitude.
The trend is showing signs of stress with the daily relative strength indicator massively overbought at levels above 77. Fourteen-day momentum is also at extreme levels. These indicators coupled with an acceleration in the cross to Tuesday's 11.9900 high point to increasing reversal risk.
If the cross turns lower there are Fibonacci retracement levels at 11.8182, 11.7119 and 11.6260, 23.6%, 38.2% and 50%, respectively.
Fundamentals still support a hawkish stance at the Norges Bank. Inflation has come lower but remains too high and the recent weakening of the crown brings the risk of Norwegian prices edging higher again.
The Norges Bank may well raise its rate path and a September rate hike should not be ruled out.
Against this technical and fundamental backdrop EUR/NOK's position at levels above 11.90 looks precarious and a trend reversal could be on the cards.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/NOK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4fen88O
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
