These options show U.S. CPI and ECB risk to EUR/USD
Sept 11 (Reuters) - Implied volatility gauges the unknown, yet key parameter of an FX option premium - actual/realised FX volatility, so changes after overnight/next day expiry included Wednesday's U.S. CPI data and Thursday's European Central Bank policy decisions can offer clues about the expected FX reaction.
Inflation took a back seat after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled a shift to focusing on U.S. employment at the Jackson Hole Symposium in mid-August, so it's no surprise that the event risk premium for Wednesday's U.S. CPI is well below Friday's NFP.
Overnight/next day expiry EUR/USD implied volatility jumped from 8.0 to 14.5 after including Friday's U.S. jobs data - a premium/break-even of 67 USD pips from 37 USD pips in either direction, for a simple vanilla straddle option.
Overnight EUR/USD implied volatility was back at 8.0 before its expiry included Wednesday U.S. CPI, but only increased to 9.0 thereafter - a premium/break-even of 37 USD pips to 42 USD pips in either direction.
Overnight EUR/USD expiry now includes Thursday's ECB, and its implied volatility has seen a slightly larger increase to 12.0 - a premium/break-even of 55 USD pips in either direction.
One-week and one-month expiry EUR/USD implied volatility have edged marginally higher on Wednesday, which might suggest the market is growing a little more cautious about a move away from the huge mid 1.1000 option expiry zone over coming sessions.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/USD 1-week and 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/4eBMxZ9
EUR/USD Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/47lmPFM
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
