Traders may be gambling on the wrong currency
Sept 3 (Reuters) -The dollar index, which is 58 percent euro, may lead traders into the wrong position, and that may have happened in August when speculators established the biggest bet on euro rising so far this year.
Where a drop for the index mainly depends on the euro rising, many of those who have sold it are expecting the dollar to drop, and have little interest in the path of the single currency.
In contrast to the dollar index, the trade weighted value of the dollar has been far more steady. Its July drop is far more modest than the dollar index, which has been driven down by speculators who have long preferred to bet that euro rises and have at times held a larger euro position than all other currency bets combined.
This preference to hold euros has been a fairly unrewarding gamble. EUR/USD has largely been confined within 1.05-1.10 and has rarely strayed above 1.11 for almost two years. Throughout that period the pair has been undermined by interest rate differentials that are still expected to support the dollar in 2026.
For the bet to pay off, traders need to see a sustained break over 1.1271 - a 61.8% retrace of the drop resulting from the U.S. tightening cycle. While hopes for that break are high, the retreat from August's 1.1201 peak toward 1.10 suggest the status quo holds.
For more click on FXBUZ
EURUSD and betting https://tmsnrt.rs/3XrVjms
USD index and trade-weighted USD https://tmsnrt.rs/3ZatmAR
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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