Uncertainty looms over Swedish crown's future path
July 3 (Reuters) -Mixed signals on the EUR/SEK chart are clouding the direction for Sweden's crown and this scenario fits with the uncertainty surrounding the next Riksbank rate move.
On the daily chart EUR/SEK is supported by the daily kijun-sen, currently 11.3595. Resistance is close to market at 11.4245, the 200-day moving average, but this could be weakened by the 100-day moving average crossing above the slower average. EUR/SEK bulls will also be looking to a July 5 11.5470-11.5583 Ichimoku cloud twist. On balance the SEK looks vulnerable.
Weekly price action failed to meet an above market cloud twist and is now contained by the cloud base at 11.4175. Fourteen-week momentum is negative, and the relative strength index is flat lining at neutral levels. There is also potential for a weekly head and shoulders pattern to play out. The right shoulder is taking shape and a rough projection off the neck lines takes the cross to 10.5566. The weekly chart suggests the SEK could strengthen.
On the monthly chart a long lower candle shadow for June, bullish, conflicts with a January 2025 10.6160-10.6398 cloud twist, bearish. Monthly momentum is negative, but the RSI is flat lining at neutral levels.
With the Riksbank set to be a leader in the rate cut stakes this year the crown looks vulnerable, but the charts suggest EUR/SEK direction is not clear cut.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/SEK Daily Candle Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3xvVIug
EUR/SEK weekly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3W6XzPm
EUR/SEK monthly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4coK9UR
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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