UniCredit & Commerz: An $80 bln bank seen from the sellside
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UNICREDIT & COMMERZ: AN $80 BLN BANK SEEN FROM THE SELLSIDE
Investors in European banking stocks woke up to big news today. Italy's UniCredit CRDI.MI has bought 9% of German rival Commerzbank CBKG.DE, a surprise move that's fuelling talk of a potential cross-border deal to create Europe's second-largest bank by market capitalization, behind leader HSBC HSBA.L.
A combined entity would have a market value of almost 74 billion euros, or $82 billion, surpassing No. 2 BNP Paribas BNPP.PA and No. 3 Intesa Sanpaolo ISP.MI.
Commerzbank has shot up, by over 17%, while UniCredit, instead of falling, has risen as much 3% in volatile trading, reflecting optimism that a potential deal could bring benefits to both. Here are some views from the sellside:
KBW's Hugo Cruz: "At first glance, we think a full takeover of CBK could make financial and strategic sense for UCG... Germany is the market where UCG has the smallest market share and we think banking is increasingly a business of scale. Both CBK and UCG are large in corporate banking, so there should be obvious synergies between the two banks if a deal is done right"
Citi's Azzurra Guelfi: "We believe the potential financial benefits are higher than in the simulation we ran in the summer (given CBK’s de-rating), but we wonder why UCG has not launched a full takeover at this stage and what could be the timetable, as this could result in lower financial benefits. The potential combination could benefit from the franchise expansion and the potential benefit of a banking union, but cost synergies benefit and CBK’s share price movements are key debating point"
Mediobanca's Andrea Filtri: "Strategically, we see CBK as the best fit for UCG as the combination of an in-market deal in Germany and the re-entering of Poland from the main door to complete the bank’s CEE network in the largest missing country."
Equita's Andrea Lisi: "The acquisition offers UCG strategic optionality to grow further in Germany, where it is already present through HVB. We theoretically see room for double-digit EPS accretion (>15%), without compromising UCG's capital strength and preserving the distribution policy"
($1 = 0.9056 euros)
(Danilo Masoni)
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FOR WEDNESDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS
GERMAN STOCKS BREAK FREE FROM THE ECONOMY - GS CLICK HERE
MINING AND RETAIL LIFT STOXX CLICK HERE
STOXX EYES STRONG START CLICK HERE
MARKETS TRY TO SHAKE IT OFF AFTER US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CLICK HERE
UniCredit Commerzbank https://tmsnrt.rs/4d5VzMy
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