US natgas hits over two-month high on warmer weather, higher demand view
By Rahul Paswan
Sept 17 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose to a more than two-month high on Tuesday, supported by higher demand forecasts for the next week and warmer weather outlook which could boost the amount of gas power generators burn.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.2 cents or 2.2% to $2.43 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:16 a.m. EDT (1416 GMT).
"We are seeing some heat in the near term, especially in Texas, and that is chasing the bears into the wings at least for now. The quiet tropics are also supportive as many models had anticipated significant demand destruction along the Atlantic coast which doesn’t appear to be manifesting," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 134 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 94 CDDs. Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to rise from 100.0 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd next week.
"The explosion in Houston/Deer Park was on a line carrying NGLs and although there is other gas infrastructure in the immediate area which are under force majeure or pressure reductions, we do not see it as impactful to forward markets," Cunningham said.
A natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline owned by Energy Transfer ET.N caught fire in La Porte, Texas, on Monday morning, the company said in a statement, knocking out power to thousands of homes and businesses and prompting a widespread evacuation. The fire continues to burn itself out.
LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, at 101.9 bcfd this week to 102.2 bcfd next week. LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
"Nearby futures are bumping up against resistance at the $2.42 level and are likely to push higher during the next couple of sessions as speculative shorts continue to exit or roll positions forward into the deferred contracts amid production slippage, steady LNG export activity, coal to gas switching and warmer than normal temperature forecasts into month’s end," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices on Tuesday morning traded slightly higher after hitting seven week lows the previous day when milder weather curbed demand. NG/EU
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Venture Global LNG signed a five-year deal with Gastrade SA to regasify up to 1 million metric tons of LNG in Greece for a five-year period beginning next year from two of its Louisiana export facilities, the company said on Tuesday.
Week ended Sep 13 | Week ended Sep 6 | Year ago Sep 13 | Five-year average Sep 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | 62 | +40 | +62 | +80 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,449 | 3,387 | 3,251 | 3,171 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 8.8% | 9.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.42 | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.32 | 11.06 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.13 | 13.33 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 19 | 18 | - | - | 52 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 134 | 134 | - | - | 94 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 153 | 152 | - | - | 146 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 101.9 | 102.2 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.1 | 109.9 | 109.9 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.0 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 40.2 | 40.1 | 42.1 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.4 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 79.4 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 100.0 | 100.5 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 75 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 20 | Week ended Sep 13 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 47 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.23 | 2.25 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.86 | 1.57 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.39 | 2.18 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.73 | 1.57 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.95 | 1.87 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.04 | 2.12 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.63 | 1.53 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.89 | 1.13 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.41 | 0.45 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 35 | 35.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 38 | 31.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 25 | 29.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 30.5 | 36.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 9.5 | 21 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 15.5 | 19.25 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Louise Heavens
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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