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US natgas hits two-month high on output drop, higher demand view



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By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Sept 13 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose to a two-month high on Friday, supported by higher demand forecasts and a drop in output in recent days as Hurricane Francine prompted oil and gas producers to cut production.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were little changed at $2.36 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:27 a.m. EDT (1427 GMT). The contract is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, up 4.6% so far this week.

"It's all about the storage scrapes that's driving the market right now. So we have a lot of things that we can focus on and say maybe it's low production, high exports to Mexico and increasing demand for power burns. But the reality is less gas is going into the ground towards the end of the storage injection season," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 6.

That was lower than the 48-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 50 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year average (2019-2023) increase of 67 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

Major U.S. natural gas producers are preparing to further curtail production in the second half of 2024, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months.

"Estimates by the government suggest production curtailed by almost half but we can also note that the predominance of shale output continues to reduce the importance of off-shore GOM supply," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

About 53% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was shut in in the wake of Storm Francine, which was downgraded on Thursday to a post-tropical cyclone by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.

Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, will rise from 99.4 bcfd this week to 100.3 bcfd next week.

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output, according to federal data. Storm-related disruptions have the potential to affect U.S. oil supplies, leading to pressure on energy prices.

LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise marginally from 109.3 bcfd this week to 109.7 bcfd next week.

Week ended Sep 13
Forecast

Week ended Sep 6
Actual

Year ago Sep 6

Five-year average

Sep 6


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-

+40

+50

+67


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

-

3,387

3,189

3,091


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-

9.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.37

2.22

2.70

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.49

11.52

11.44

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.69

13.79

13.92

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

15

14

7

13

15

U.S. GFS CDDs

141

149

171

149

139

U.S. GFS TDDs

156

163

178

162

154

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.7

101.5

101.8

103.5

96.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.2

7.9

7.9

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

110.9

109.3

109.7

N/A

103.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.9

2.1

2.0

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.3

7.2

7.1

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

13.1

12.2

12.9

12.1

8.2

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.8

4.9

4.7

4.9

U.S. Residential

3.6

4.1

4.2

3.8

3.9

U.S. Power Plant

43.2

40.1

40.1

42.1

36.0

U.S. Industrial

21.8

21.8

21.9

21.5

21.7

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

80.5

78.0

78.2

79.4

80.0

Total U.S. Demand

102.9

99.4

100.3

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

77

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Sep 13

Week ended Sep 6

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

6

10

11

10

Solar

6

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

46

48

41

38

37

Coal

15

16

17

21

23

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.13

2.13


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.65

1.61


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.09

2.23


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.60

1.64


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.82

1.80


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.10

1.98


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.52

1.76


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-1.57

-0.53




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.51

0.60



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

39.50

36.25



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

31.50

48.25



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

20.00

24.25


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

33.33

31.33




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

26.50

19.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

24.25

16.00




Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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