USD fragile ahead of possible super-sized Fed rate cut
Sept 16 (Reuters) -FX traders should beware the U.S. dollar could see a much bigger drop ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision this week, where a super-sized interest rate cut could be delivered by the U.S. central bank.
The LSEG Interest Rate Probability App shows the chance of a 50 basis points cut from the Fed is currently viewed as more likely than a 25 bp cut.
The speculative dollar short position - derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars - has reduced.
For the week ending Sept. 10, the value of net short positions held by speculators fell to $14.35 billion from $17.40 billion a week earlier, providing space for the greenback to fall.
The upside for the USD index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has been limited by a major 101.926 Fibonacci level, a 23.6% retrace of the 106.51-100.51 (April-August) drop. There is scope for a drop to probe the 2024 100.51 low and the 100 psychological level below.
For more click on FXBUZ
IRPR App https://tmsnrt.rs/3XNP9gY
Daily Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3zbEyD0
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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