USD/JPY bulls are reluctant
USD/JPY buyers are still reluctant to go all-in.
That is what charts show. Since dipping below 140 and forming a bullish hammer Monday, dollar gains have been sharp, sporadic and often linked to U.S. data.
Daily charts suggest spot’s rise since setting a year-to-date low of 139.58 on Sept. 16 is an oversold correction targeting the bottom of an expanding Ichimoku cloud, currently at 148.62.
A U.S. slowdown, expectations of Bank of Japan rate hikes and dollar sales during Asian hours has made the ascent jagged. A smoother ride for USD/JPY bulls requires a drop in volatility and more optimism about the greenback. Upbeat U.S. data Thursday helps achieve the latter. The former is influenced by Bank of Japan policy expectations and economic data.
On Friday, the Japanese central bank is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at 0.25% as it awaits the outcome of LDP leadership elections Sept. 27 and assesses market developments including the yen’s rise. The latest inflation reading will also be eyed. Analysts see core CPI quickening to 2.8% annualized. Ongoing negative real rates should curb yen enthusiasm.
Flows are already starting to lean against the Japanese currency. Investors have slowed yen buying according to custody bank data and option accounts are fading dollar weakness as strikes below 142 roll off. Front-end yen volatility continues to drift lower as event risks pass. But turning USD/JPY bears into bulls requires a spot above 145. This could occur in coming sessions should short-term moving averages start to cross above.
For more click on FXBUZ
yen chart https://tmsnrt.rs/3zBAAn4
(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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