What if the resilience of the European economy turns out to be fool's gold?
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WHAT IF THE RESILIENCE OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY TURNS OUT TO BE FOOL'S GOLD?
Looking at this week's economic data, it looks like that the euro zone is winning the race against sticky inflation and slow growth, paving the ground for a September ECB rate cut, although HSBC economists point out that all that glitters is not gold.
Euro zone business activity showed strength in August, with preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index beating expectations, driven by a boost from the Paris Olympics.
"If this unwinds next month, things won't look so rosy", said HSBC economists in a note as Germany remains "a story of 'slower, lower weaker" with manufacturing in a "dire state".
The German manufacturing PMI index tumbled to 42.1 from 43.2 in July, wrongfooting analysts who had expected it to rise to 43.5.
"The problems remain most serious for manufacturing firms but are now spilling over into services as well", said Berenberg European economist Salomon Fiedler.
"Continued political uncertainty and falling intakes of new orders, partly reflecting weak foreign demand, are weighing on sentiment", he added.
On another point, growth in the euro zone negotiated wages slowed to 3.55% in the second quarter from 4.74% three months earlier, but HSBC said that the fall might have been less impressive after excluding one-off effects.
All in all, even if the data are supportive of a September ECB rate cut, these economists note that "the medal may turn out to be fool's gold".
(Matteo Allievi)
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FRIDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
STRONG EURO COULD ACT AS HEADWIND FOR EUROPE INC CLICK HERE
THE VOLATILITY SPIKE THAT IS HARD TO FORGET CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN SHARES INCH UP, SWITZERLAND UNDERPERFORMS CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES HOLD THEIR BREATH BEFORE POWELL CLICK HERE
BOJ'S UEDA BOLSTERS YEN. UP NEXT, POWELL CLICK HERE
Japan's core-core inflation dips below 2% https://reut.rs/4cDV24c
Graphic-Stocks on Powell's Jackson Hole speech days https://reut.rs/3AssQE1
European equities mostly higher, Switzerland lags https://reut.rs/3T1CDHT
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