Yen should maintain choppy march higher in days ahead
The bullish tone for the yen should remain intact as markets plod through key events in the second half of September and the final days of a Japanese fiscal half-year.
The yen is considered just one of several currency winners should the Fed slash its policy rate by as much as 50 basis points Wednesday. Some see risk-sensitive currencies such as the high-yielding Mexican peso or Aussie dollar outperforming should investor sentiment improve.
How the Japanese currency performs against those peers following the Fed will depend on the subsequent shape of the U.S. Treasury curve, upcoming Japanese inflation data and the tone of Bank of Japan officials after next Friday’s policy meeting.
A modest steepening of the Treasury curve from its current level would likely impede the yen’s progress as markets adjust to new yield dynamics.
That period of calm may be short-lived if Japan National CPI due Thursday surprises to the upside. It is already running at 2.8% and Citibank’s surprise index shows data in Japan has a tendency to top expectations more so than earlier this year.
If inflation comes in hot, BOJ officials will need to signal future tightening soon after next Friday’s policy meeting. That signaling would come at a time when Japanese corporates are wrapping up financial books and as candidates are vying for LDP leadership, resulting in bouts of volatility that will likely send spot beneath the closely-watched 140 level.
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Yen/CESI https://tmsnrt.rs/3XIuZ80
(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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