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Zloty edges lower ahead of Polish interest rates decision



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Zloty edges lower ahead of Polish interest rates decision</title></head><body>

WARSAW, Sept 4 (Reuters) -The Polish zloty eased a touch on Wednesday ahead of the central bank's interest rate decision later in the day, with analysts expecting stable borrowing costs amid rebounding inflation.

All 29 respondents in a Reuters poll forecast no change in the National Bank of Poland's monetary policy, meaning the cost of credit will have remained unchanged since October.

By 1020 GMT the zloty EURPLN= eased 0.1% against the euro to 4.2820, near the mid point of the firm range it has stayed in since August.

The Polish currency remains Central Eastern Europe's top performer, gaining almost 1.5% this year, supported by steady interest rates and unblocked funds from the European Union.

Analysts will closely scrutinise the Monetary Policy Council's (MPC) press release following the rate decision and on Thursday's conference by the NBP governor for signs of when rate changes could resume.

"On the one hand, in August, Governor (Adam) Glapinski joined those MPC members who see room for interest rate cuts in 2025, which may translate into a softening of the official stance of the entire Council," ING BSK said in a note.

"On the other hand, solid GDP data in 2Q24, including investment growth and further inflation growth in August, and a higher than previously planned fiscal imbalance in 2024-25 speak in favor of maintaining a hawkish stance."

In August Glapinski said Polish policymakers could discuss changing monetary policy before 2026, softening his previous, more hawkish outlook.

Data last week showed Poland's economic growth picking up pace in the second quarter, reaching is fastest year-on-year rate in almost two years on the back of private consumption and fast wage growth.

Also last week, Poland's draft budget for 2025 forecast the country's general deficit rising to 5.5% of GDP next year.

In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= firmed 0.2% against the euro on Wednesday to 393.30, halting its losses after it weakened about half a percent in the previous session.

"A risk-averse mood appeared in markets yesterday, which pushed the dollar stronger, ... This mood could continue today, so I do not expect any big firming in the forint. It might as well weaken a bit, as far as 394.50," a currency trader in Budapest said.

Meanwhile, the Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.1% to 25.0770 per euro, hovering off of the two-month highs it hit in August.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1220 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0770

25.1010

+0.10%

-1.50%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

393.3000

394.1500

+0.22%

-2.57%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2820

4.2785

-0.08%

+1.46%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9730

4.9737

+0.01%

+0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9700

117.0200

+0.04%

+0.24%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1584.51

1591.3200

-0.43%

+12.06%

Budapest

.BUX

72438.79

72982.36

-0.74%

+19.50%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2395.41

2409.50

-0.58%

+2.24%

Bucharest

.BETI

18020.21

18111.09

-0.50%

+17.23%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3450

-0.0460

+101bps

+0bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5560

-0.0560

+143bps

-1bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.8080

-0.0490

+158bps

-1bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.7330

-0.0670

+240bps

-2bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1320

-0.0650

+301bps

-2bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3590

-0.0820

+313bps

-4bps


FORWARD







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.92

3.61

3.35

4.36

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.60

5.75

5.33

6.50

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.75

5.42

4.98

5.87

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************




Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw and Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Angus MacSwan

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