Zloty weaker before draft budget, forint keeps gains
By Boldizsar Gyori
BUDAPEST, Aug 28 (Reuters) -The forint held onto gains on Wednesday after Hungary's central bank paused its rate-cutting cycle, while the zloty weakened as the Polish government was set to discuss next year's draft budget with an expected deficit increase.
Hungary's central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday after 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points, leaving its base rate HUINT.ECI at 6.75%, in line with most analysts' expectations.
The forint EURHUF= traded up a touch on the day at 392.75 to the euro by 0818 GMT on Wednesday, and was comfortably past Tuesday's opening level of 394.90.
"Based on market pricing, it would not have been a dramatic surprise if the MNB (National Bank of Hungary) announced another cut, but the failure to do so may also have caused the forint to strengthen further following the decision," MBH Bank said in a note.
In its statement, the central bank said further easing is possible this year depending on inflation developments and the policy course of major central banks.
In Poland, the government was set to adopt the draft budget for 2025 on Wednesday, with local media reporting a sharp deficit increase, as the government brings some spendings done out-of-budget under predecessors into the fold and lifts defense expenditures further.
"In our opinion, the expected acceleration in economic growth, including maintaining solid private consumption dynamics, provides room for reducing the state budget deficit to GDP ratio, although the nominal value of the deficit will remain at a high level," Bank Millennium wrote in a note.
"Media reports suggest a possible increase in the deficit to almost PLN 300 billion (about 8% of GDP)...
"In our opinion, if these reports are confirmed, it will have a negative impact on the treasury securities market, on the one hand due to the increase in next year's borrowing needs, and on the other hand due to the postponement of the prospect of interest rate cuts."
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.1% lower at an almost two-week low, trading above 4.29 to the common currency.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCK= held flat, trading at 25.02 to the euro, staying just on the weak side of the psychological level of 25 which it breached briefly on Tuesday for the first time since June.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1018 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0200 | 25.0150 | -0.02% | -1.27% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 392.7500 | 393.2000 | +0.11% | -2.44% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2925 | 4.2885 | -0.09% | +1.21% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9776 | 4.9780 | +0.01% | -0.07% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9800 | 117.0400 | +0.05% | +0.23% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1581.80 | 1585.1200 | -0.21% | +11.87% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 72926.19 | 73315.37 | -0.53% | +20.30% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2383.75 | 2396.22 | -0.52% | +1.74% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18325.86 | 18330.81 | -0.03% | +19.22% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3770 | -0.0040 | +099bps | +0bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5420 | 0.0060 | +138bps | +2bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8010 | -0.0040 | +154bps | +1bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.8620 | 0.0150 | +247bps | +2bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1290 | -0.0140 | +296bps | +0bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4020 | NULL | +314bps | #VALUE! |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.92 | 3.59 | 3.33 | 4.40 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.20 | 5.80 | 5.40 | 6.52 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.73 | 5.43 | 4.98 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Ros Russell
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限,并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容,但无意进行任何更改或扩展,也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限,将受下列条款与条例约束:(i) 条款与条例;(ii) 风险提示;以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意,网站所提供的所有讯息,仅限一般资讯用途。此外,XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成,也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容,包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接,皆保持不变,并作为一般市场评论所提供,而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解,XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯,更多详情请点击 这里。