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Zloty weaker before draft budget, forint keeps gains



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Zloty weaker before draft budget, forint keeps gains</title></head><body>

By Boldizsar Gyori

BUDAPEST, Aug 28 (Reuters) -The forint held onto gains on Wednesday after Hungary's central bank paused its rate-cutting cycle, while the zloty weakened as the Polish government was set to discuss next year's draft budget with an expected deficit increase.

Hungary's central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday after 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points, leaving its base rate HUINT.ECI at 6.75%, in line with most analysts' expectations.

The forint EURHUF= traded up a touch on the day at 392.75 to the euro by 0818 GMT on Wednesday, and was comfortably past Tuesday's opening level of 394.90.

"Based on market pricing, it would not have been a dramatic surprise if the MNB (National Bank of Hungary) announced another cut, but the failure to do so may also have caused the forint to strengthen further following the decision," MBH Bank said in a note.

In its statement, the central bank said further easing is possible this year depending on inflation developments and the policy course of major central banks.

In Poland, the government was set to adopt the draft budget for 2025 on Wednesday, with local media reporting a sharp deficit increase, as the government brings some spendings done out-of-budget under predecessors into the fold and lifts defense expenditures further.

"In our opinion, the expected acceleration in economic growth, including maintaining solid private consumption dynamics, provides room for reducing the state budget deficit to GDP ratio, although the nominal value of the deficit will remain at a high level," Bank Millennium wrote in a note.

"Media reports suggest a possible increase in the deficit to almost PLN 300 billion (about 8% of GDP)...

"In our opinion, if these reports are confirmed, it will have a negative impact on the treasury securities market, on the one hand due to the increase in next year's borrowing needs, and on the other hand due to the postponement of the prospect of interest rate cuts."

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.1% lower at an almost two-week low, trading above 4.29 to the common currency.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCK= held flat, trading at 25.02 to the euro, staying just on the weak side of the psychological level of 25 which it breached briefly on Tuesday for the first time since June.


CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1018 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0200

25.0150

-0.02%

-1.27%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

392.7500

393.2000

+0.11%

-2.44%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2925

4.2885

-0.09%

+1.21%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9776

4.9780

+0.01%

-0.07%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9800

117.0400

+0.05%

+0.23%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1581.80

1585.1200

-0.21%

+11.87%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

72926.19

73315.37

-0.53%

+20.30%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2383.75

2396.22

-0.52%

+1.74%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

18325.86

18330.81

-0.03%

+19.22%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3770

-0.0040

+099bps

+0bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5420

0.0060

+138bps

+2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.8010

-0.0040

+154bps

+1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.8620

0.0150

+247bps

+2bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1290

-0.0140

+296bps

+0bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4020

NULL

+314bps

#VALUE!










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.92

3.59

3.33

4.40


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.20

5.80

5.40

6.52


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.73

5.43

4.98

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************







Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Ros Russell

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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