MidEast tension, port strike see edgy Q4 start
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With Middle East tensions dialing back up, U.S. port workers on strike and global industry under the cosh, the final quarter of 2024 promises to be a bit edgier for world markets than the relatively serene first nine months.
The fourth quarter was barely underway on Tuesday when 12 months of intense conflict in Gaza and Lebanon spilled over again into another direct standoff between Israel and Iran - jarring recently listless energy markets and provoking some limited hedging of risk assets.
With year-end political risks already high due to the U.S. election, a fresh flaring of Middle East violence has added anxiety at the margins - even if most economic and fundamental market settings still seem positive.
Iran said early on Wednesday that its missile attack on Israel was over, barring further provocation, even as Israel and the United States promised to strike back against Tehran as fears of a wider war smouldered.
But, as so often over the past year, the market reaction to the latest geopolitical twist has been pretty limited so far.
Crude oil prices CLc1 - with one eye on Wednesday's OPEC+ ministerial meeting - did pop back above $70 per barrel - but that's only back to where it was early last week. Year-on-year crude declines that are depressing headline annual inflation rates across the world are still running close to 20%.
As it stands, no OPEC policy change is expected and the group is set to raise output from December by 180,000 bpd monthly. And Saudi Arabia warned oil prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if OPEC+ members don't stick to agreed-upon production targets, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Back stateside, the U.S. east coast port strikes could well distort monthly economic data and inflation readings at a critical time for policymakers - though there are doubts whether any damage would be durable and some of the biggest worries are for already-hobbled European automakers.
But there is little doubt the global industrial economy is struggling badly again, judging by the stream of U.S. and global manufacturing surveys for September released on Tuesday.
JPMorgan's catch-all global factory index is now showing the deepest contraction of worldwide activity this year and just a whisker from its deepest downturn since the aftermath of the 2020 pandemic shock.
There were some silver linings in the U.S. readouts, however, which showed improving new orders and a drop in factory input prices to nine-month lows. Along with news of a pick-up in economy-wide job openings in August, the economic 'soft landing' picture holds together nicely.
In a big week for labor market data, ADP's private sector payrolls report is due out later on Wednesday, alongside another long list of Federal Reserve speakers.
And despite the geopolitical jolt, interest rate and stock markets have held relatively steady.
The S&P 500 .SPX fell back less than 1% from record highs on Tuesday and stock futures ESc1 are off only modestly ahead of Wednesday's bell. The VIX volatility gauge .VIX is hovering just under 20, a level it briefly poked above for the first time in three weeks on Tuesday.
Fed futures pricing is virtually unchanged from Monday.
'Safety' bids in U.S. Treasuries after the Iran attack news have mostly been unwound already - with 10-year yields US10YT=RR back just above 3.75% after completing a round-trip from lows just under 3.70% on Tuesday.
Gold prices XAU= were flat on Wednesday and didn't even hit new records on Tuesday's developments.
The dollar .DXY held onto gains, perhaps partly due to safe haven demand, but it was largely against the euro, which is suffering from stepped-up European Central Bank easing speculation.
With euro zone inflation swooning below target, European industry contracting and the regional auto sector in deep trouble, economists have rushed to change ECB forecasts over the past week and most do not see another rate cut this month.
The market mood around the world on Wednesday was also more circumspect.
Asia stocks were mostly lower, with Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 underperforming with losses of 2%.
The yen JPY= gave back any tangential safety bid it may have received too, however, with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also saying the central bank must be vigilant to fallout from unstable markets and global economic uncertainties before pushing ahead with further interest rate hikes.
But with mainland Chinese markets closed for the rest of the week, Hong Kong .HSI was the only indicator of ongoing optimism about last week's frantic economic stimulus and the Hang Seng jumped another 6% on Tuesday's reopening there.
European stocks .STOXXE actually ticked higher again.
In company news, Nike NKE.N withdrew its annual revenue forecast on Tuesday, just as a new CEO is set to take the helm at the sportswear giant that is staring at a holiday season likely to be filled with discounts and weak traffic on its website and mobile apps.
That has sent Nike's shares tumbling 6% ahead of Wednesday's open.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:
* US September ADP private sector payrolls; Brazil August industrial production
* OPEC+ ministerial panel meets to review oil policy
* Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin, and Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman all speak; European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel speaks
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin; British Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels
* US corporate earnings: Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss, RPM International, NovaGold Resources
ISM manufacturing remains in contraction, input prices slump https://reut.rs/4emzKd6
Containerized goods to East/Gulf and West coast of US https://reut.rs/3zArl6G
US job openings pick up in August https://reut.rs/3zONHBt
More jobs than jobseekers in the US https://reut.rs/4drOrKH
US ADP private sector payrolls due out https://reut.rs/47h7je7
By Mike Dolan, editing by Gareth Jones
mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
