EUR/USD bulls won't commit, will wait for October jobs report
Sept 19 (Reuters) -EUR/USD erased most of its gains Thursday as bulls lacked conviction despite the Fed's 50bps rate cut, and they'll likely wait until U.S. October payroll data for clues about the potential for more U.S. monetary easing.
The latest round of jobs data indicated the Fed may not cut as aggressively as EUR/USD longs would like.
Weekly initial and continuing claims dropped from the prior week's result and also came in below estimates.
September Philly Fed business conditions beat estimates of -1.0, coming in at +1.7, while its employment component increased to 10.7 from -5.7 in August.
The data suggested the U.S. labor markets isn't as weak as investors previously believed, which helped fuel a U.S. yield US2YT=RR rally.
The dollar's yield advantage over the euro increased as German-U.S. spreads US2DE2=RR widened towards -139bps and acted as a weight on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD gains eroded despite stocks ESv1 and gold XAU= rallies, which are typically bearish for the dollar.
Investors will focus on U.S. September payroll data due Oct. 4.
Should payrolls continue their downward trend and come in below estimates or August's 142k result, investors might price in a higher probability that the Fed will cut aggressively.
The dollar and yields may then weaken, potentially driving EUR/USD upward.
For more click on FXBUZ
(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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