Sterling sleds to new 2024 high amid upbeat fundamentals, technicals
GBP/USD extended recent gains, advancing to another 2024 high at 1.3341 amid solid fundamentals and technical indicators, which could help lift the pound toward early 2022 highs above 1.34 as the BoE travels a less dovish policy path than the Fed.
Today's unexpectedly large rise in UK retail sales added to more hawkish BoE rate expectations relative to the Fed.
The jumbo Fed 50bp cut when juxtaposed against the steady BoE gives a outsized advantage to the pound as UK-U.S. rate paths are expected to diverge further for the balance of 2024 and 2025.
Technically, GBP/USD has made a series of higher highs and higher lows -- a bullish signal -- since rising off key Fib support by 1.30 on Sept. 11.
GBP/USD futures positioning also hints at continued bullish tendencies. Net spec sterling longs rose to a record high at 142k contracts on July 23, and have since fallen to +48k in mid-August before rebounding to +90k contracts as of Sept. 10.
Given recent rate moves, sterling longs are likely to move back toward the July high watermark.
The backdrop of bullish fundamentals, technicals and positioning could lead GBP/USD bulls to target the Feb. 27, 2022 weekly high at 1.3437 and Feb. 6 weekly high by 1.3643.
For more click on FXBUZ
GBP Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4gvIpLU
(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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