Buybacks from European energy names to slow in 2025 - UBS
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BUYBACKS FROM EUROPEAN ENERGY NAMES TO SLOW IN 2025 - UBS
Thanks to falling oil prices and ongoing weak global demand, share buybacks among European energy stocks may be less juicy in 2025, UBS said in a Monday note.
"We think distributions will be unchanged for now, although the rate of buybacks is more vulnerable to being reduced from next year", they said.
"Lower (oil) prices suggest the potential 500 million euros acceleration of buybacks at Italy's Eni ENI.MI is at risk and the prospect of an additional program at Spain's Repsol REP.MC now very unlikely", they added.
Deteriorating macro economic scenario coupled with softer than expected demand will continue to weigh on the European energy sector, UBS said, who recommended staying defensive ahead of the next earnings season.
"The third quarter is likely to be characterised by a falling oil price, a high level of maintenance and much weaker refining margins", they said.
Facing a cautious backdrop amid a sluggish European economy and weakness in China, UBS believes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may easily opt for prolonged productions cuts.
"The oil markets appear tightly balanced next year and any disappointment on demand growth risks taking prices lower, to force a deepening of cuts", they added.
The oil and gas European sector index .SXEP has dropped almost 5% year-to-date, while the benchmark .STOXX has gained around 8%.
(Matteo Allievi)
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