USD/JPY looks set for a bigger slide as Fed/BOJ looms
Sept 13 (Reuters) -FX traders should gear up for a USD/JPY collapse under the 140 psychological level, where option barriers reside.
The dollar softened on Friday, with the yen hitting its highest level this year as investors remained on tenterhooks ahead of next week's central bank bonanza, where the focus is on the Federal Reserve and the size of its expected interest rate cut.
The LSEG Interest Rate Probability App shows the chance of a 25 basis points cut from the Fed is more likely than a 50 bps cut. Though there are reports by the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times that a 50 bps cut is still an option.
Meanwhile, a string of Bank of Japan comments are signalling more hikes, though rates are expected to remain unchanged at the Sept. 20 meeting.
Nevertheless the Fed and BOJ rates will partially converge through to the end of 2025 and that could keep USD/JPY on a downside trajectory. A weekly close under the broken 140.49 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 127.22-161.96 (2023-2024) EBS rise, would be a very bearish sign.
For more click on FXBUZ
Rate Expectations Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3XIrRZR
Weekly Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3To336L
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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