Will it be 50 or 25? Either way it should be ok
Main U.S. indexes rally; Dow out front, up ~0.8%
All S&P 500 sectors green; Utilities, Materials lead
Dollar slips; crude ~flat; gold up ~1%; bitcoin up >2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dips to ~3.65%
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WILL IT BE 50 OR 25? EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE OK
U.S. market watchers have been in a fluster about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points after its Sept. 17-18 meeting.
Fluctuations in bets have been evident in the CME Group's FedWatch tool with traders last putting a 57% probability on a 25 basis point cut and a 43% probability on a 50 basis point cut.
It shows Thursday's probability was at 72% for 25 and 28% for 50. Earlier on Thursday though, after the producer price report and Wednesday's consumer inflation report, traders were betting for a while on a 85% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
While the changes indicate uncertainty, strategists say this doesn't necessarily mean that the market will panic after whatever decision the U.S. central bank makes next week.
"Next week they're going to be putting in a cut. The question is how much. The market seems to imply 25 and their language seems to imply 25. There's concern that if they do 50 there may be a misinterpretation that they need to hurry because of things being more difficult," said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede in Philadelphia.
"The choice between 25 and 50 is probably not that big a deal because you're going to tie messaging around it," he said during a telephone interview.
So if the Fed goes with a 25 basis point cut, it will impact its signals on the number of future cuts. And if starts with the bigger cut it will explain its reasoning and temper expectations for future cuts accordingly, the strategist added.
"Their stopping point will be at the same point," he said.
Over at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist had a similar message in emailed comments.
"It’s possible that 50bps leads to a 'the Fed’s worried/what do they see that we don’t see' reaction, but again it comes back to how it’s communicated at the presser and in the summary of economic projections," Samana said.
"I don’t see either sized cut leading to any type of major/multi-week sell-off," said Samana, although he noted that elections might be a bigger catalyst than the easing pace.
So he says: "Investors should position for easing financial conditions and an improving economy, while using election-related dips as an opportunity to add equity risk."
(Sinéad Carew)
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