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XM市场研究

Bitcoin pulls back ahead of key Fed decision – Crypto News

Crypto traders turn cautious ahead of Fed decision Trump’s crypto project does not spark fireworks ETF inflows slow substantially Overly dovish Fed bets pose downside risks   Cautiousness as Fed cut looms Bitcoin recovered more than 15% between September 7 and 14, perhaps as more market participants were convinced that the Fed will start this easing cycle with a bold 50bps move on Wednesday.
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How will the US elections impact the markets?

Harris takes the lead in most polls as Trump’s campaign stalls But what does a Harris win mean for stocks and the US dollar? Can Trump turn things around and what would investors prefer? Late entry The US presidential election is drawing ever closer and there can be no doubt that the race heated up after President Joe Biden abruptly dropped out.
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Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on
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Daily Comment – Slow start to the week ahead of the Fed meeting 

Mixed movements in FX but the yen remains on the front foot Stocks recorded their best weekly performance of 2024 Another assassination attempt against Trump Bitcoin suffers while gold reaches a new all-time high Stocks are in anticipation mode A very important week has commenced with the US equity markets digesting last week’s impressive performance.
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Bitcoin slips as Trump fails to get poll boost after presidential debate – Crypto News

Bitcoin rebounds before coming under pressure again Harris seen as winner of first presidential debate with pro-crypto Trump Unconvincing recovery in equities doesn’t help sentiment for cryptos Bitcoin’s rebound runs into trouble Bitcoin and other major cryptos have bounced back from their late August-early September slide, but lingering anxiety in the markets about a slowing US economy is limiting the upside, while the country’s looming presidential election is also keepi
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Daily Comment – Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation  US presidential debate dominates headlines Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally Stocks are in anticipation mode US equity indices were mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 index recording another green day and the Dow Jones mimicking the European stock indices’ negative performance.
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Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut.
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Daily Comment – Equities rebound but face danger from US presidential debate  

Equities turn positive, but sentiment is fragile US presidential debate today could prove market moving UK labour market data supports the pound Bitcoin gains as risk sentiment improves, gold is range-bound Stocks breathe better US equity markets recorded gains in yesterday’s session, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and euro/dollar dropped close to 1.1030 despite the fact that most participants remain uncertain about next week’s Fed rate cut size and confus
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Cryptos’ short-term outlook rests on the Fed – Crypto News

Cryptos trade lower due to overall negative market sentiment Spot ETFs outflow confirm investors’ lower appetite Cryptos desperately looking for new bullish catalysts Ethereum a tad above some key support levels Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure The cryptocurrency world remains under severe pressure with bitcoin repeatedly failing to climb above the $60k area.
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Technical Analysis – Bitcoin slides and hits the 56,200 support

Bitcoin has been declining since August 26 The bigger picture points to a broadening formation Oscillators imply further declines within the pattern BTCUSD has been sliding lately, after hitting resistance near the 64,700 zone on August 24 and 26. The crypto king dropped below the key support (now turned into resistance) zone of 61,600 and found support slightly below 56,200 yesterday.
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Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.
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Bitcoin holds above $60,000 ahead of Jackson Hole – Crypto News

Bitcoin recoups some losses as risk sentiment rebounds But cryptos fail to erase latest slump, lagging against stocks Absence of new catalysts shifts attention to presidential race   Bitcoin at a crucial level ahead of Jackson Hole Bitcoin is down more than 9% this month, lagging almost against every major asset class. In early August, cryptocurrencies plummeted amid a broader selloff in risk sensitive assets, after the July downbeat NFP report triggered concerns over the health
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Volatility ebbs as recession fears evaporate – Volatility Watch

Besides EUR/USD, FX volatility subsides as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in precious metals is still high, but oil enters calmer waters Stock indices and Bitcoin volatility at their bottom of their 30-day range Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected July NFP report have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths. This week, investors are focused on Jerome Powell's Jackson H
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Technical Analysis – BTCUSD completes death cross

BTCUSD trades sideways in the past few sessions Sentiment deteriorates after multiple rejections at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are skewed to the downside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has been losing ground in August, experiencing a strong selloff on the back of a downbeat July NFP report. In contrast to stocks, Bitcoin has failed to recover notable ground as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has repeatedly repelled any upside attempts.
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Market Comment – Euro/dollar in critical area as the Jackson Hole Symposium nears

Stocks record strong weekly gains as the first Fed rate cut gets closer Markets are gradually preparing for the Jackson Hole gathering Euro/dollar trades within a critical resistance area Gold in demand as geopolitics generate headlines Stocks rally, enjoy the mixed US data Markets continue to recover after the recent rout, with US equities finishing last week with strong gains.
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Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets  Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.
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Bitcoin stages comeback after sharp selloff – Crypto News

Bitcoin took a hit by a wave of risk aversion in markets But it quickly bounced back as traders bought the dip Ethereum completes death cross on the daily chart   Bitcoin recoups losses Cryptocurrencies plummeted on the back of a broader selloff in risk sensitive assets, triggered by concerns over the health of the US economy after the latest downbeat NFP report.
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Market angst pushes volatility higher across the board – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility skyrockets as recession fears resurface Volatility in commodities jumps as geopolitics takes centre stage Stock indices experience much stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, jumped to the highest level of the past month as fears of recession, on the back of last Friday’s weak US labour market report, resulted in the market pricing in an aggressive easing path for most central banks during 2024.
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Market Comment – Markets breathe easier but will it last?

Slightly more positive tone in equity markets today Fear of recession fuels Fed rate cut expectations Light calendar today, focus on data during Asian session RBA remains hawkish, considers rate hike US stock markets set the tone for recovery With the US stock markets recovering slightly yesterday, the overall market sentiment is more positive today.
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Bitcoin retreats as traders unwind Trump trade – Crypto News

Bitcoin slips after failing to claim the 70,000 psychological mark Probably due to profit taking as markets clip odds of a Trump win Crypto correlation with stocks remains relatively low   Bitcoin under pressure Bitcoin has been on a slippery slope this week after touching the $70,000 psychological mark, on Monday, for the first time since June 7. Much of this weakness is attributed to the risk off sentiment observed in markets, but it is certainly more than that.
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