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XM市场研究

XM市场研究 - 14小时前

Daily Comment – Fed goes big with first rate cut; BoE takes the torch

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch It has begun! The Fed decided to kickstart this easing cycle with a bold 50bps rate cut, and to flag more reductions before the turn of the year. The new dot plot pointed to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024, which translates into two quarter-point cuts at each of the remain
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XM市场研究 - 1天前

Technical Analysis – USDJPY flirts with 142.00 but remains bearish

USDJPY bounces off 14-month low Remains well above uptrend line MACD and RSI still beneath their mid-points USDJPY rebounded off the 14-month low of 139.56 but is still heading down a few hours before the Fed decision. The price has lost more than 13% since it peaked at 161.94 in July. Technically, the MACD oscillator is standing marginally above its trigger line below the zero level, while the RSI is sloping down beneath the neutral threshold of 50. If the price continues the d
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Daily Comment – Let the Fed rate cuts begin

Dollar trades indecisively ahead of important Fed decision Investors assign a strong 60% chance for a 50bps cut Wall Street and gold traders also on the edge of their seats Pound rebounds on sticky UK inflation Fed to press the rate cut button The dollar rebounded against most of its major peers on Tuesday but resumed its slide early today as traders appear reluctant to assume a clear direction ahead of the very important Fed decision later today, when the Committee is expecte
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY poised for a new bullish wave; will it succeed?

USDJPY sets the ground for a bullish reversal, but it's still trapped below key resistance Technical signals cannot rule out more bearish actions; sellers wait below 140 Fed to deliver its first rate cut in four years at 18:00 GMT   USDJPY turned green on Tuesday, marking its best daily session in a month after securing a solid base around the 140 number.
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Quick Brief – US retail sales surprise to the upside

Retail sales rose by 0.1% m/m versus 1.1% before Retail control group up 0.3% m/m as projected Dollar gains some ground Following an upwardly revised 1.1% spike in July, retail sales in the US increased by 0.1% month-over-month in August, surpassing estimates of a 0.2% fall. The retail sales control group remained unchanged at 0.3%. The retail sales data is crucial as it reflects consumer demand, which is a key factor in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Is the BoJ on hold until December's meeting? – Preview

BoJ expects no change Ueda comments may provide insight USDJPY remains above 140.00 despite a severe sell-off BoJ interest rate decision on Friday at 03:00 GMT BoJ decision to keep interest rate steady At its meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to keep its monetary policy position unchanged.  Most market watchers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its target range for short-term interest rates at 0% to 1%.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Will the Fed cut by 25 bps or 50 bps? – Preview

Fed is expected to cut rates, but is it too late to the game? Intense speculation about size of cut as markers lean towards 50 bps New dot plot will also be crucial in Wednesday’s decision at 18:00 GMT Fed to join rate-cut club The timing of the Fed’s first interest rate cut of the cycle has been the dominant market theme all year, but since the summer, the narrative has changed to the size of the cut, not when.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

EURUSD speeds up to test 1.1100 area as debate over a bold Fed rate cut continues USDJPY hits 14-month low; BoJ awaited to give direction on rate hikes GBPUSD shifts to the upside ahead of CPI data and BoE rate decision   FOMC rate decision --> EURUSD The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the question is not if, but by how much it will cut interest rates.
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XM市场研究 - 4天前

Daily Comment – Slow start to the week ahead of the Fed meeting 

Mixed movements in FX but the yen remains on the front foot Stocks recorded their best weekly performance of 2024 Another assassination attempt against Trump Bitcoin suffers while gold reaches a new all-time high Stocks are in anticipation mode A very important week has commenced with the US equity markets digesting last week’s impressive performance.
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XM市场研究 - 4天前Bearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY unlocks new 14-month low

USDJPY dives below 140.70 key level Momentum oscillators continue downside pressure USDJPY has declined considerably towards a new 14-month low of 139.56 earlier today, continuing the significant sell-off. The price has been in a bearish tendency since mid-August with the technical oscillators confirming the current move. The MACD oscillator is standing beneath its trigger and zero lines, while the RSI is crossing below the 30 level.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Week Ahead – Fed to cut interest rates, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals Let the Fed cuts begin Since the July US employment report, which sparked fears of recession, investors have been trying to figure out the size of the potential rate cut the Fed will deliver at its September gathering, and the moment of truth has finally come.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Dollar sinks, gold surges as 50bps Fed cut back in the picture

Soft US PPI and reports of Fed dilemma revive bets of 50bps cut Dollar plunges as yields fall, pushing gold to new all-time high Euro climbs as ECB trims rates but does not signal October cut Fed rate cut expectations swing wildly Expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September had all been priced out by investors.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Dollar firms after CPI, euro awaits ECB, techs lead equities rebound

US dollar edges up after CPI report wipes out 50-bps rate cut bets Euro stuck on the backfoot in wait for ECB decision Wall Street rebound gathers pace as tech stocks rally Mixed CPI report disappoints US inflation fell to the lowest since February 2021 in August, but the bigger-than-expected drop in the headline figure was overshadowed by an acceleration in the monthly core measure.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Technical Analysis - USDJPY unlocks new multi-month low at 140.70

USDJPY confirms the bearish tendency MACD and RSI dive near oversold areas USDJPY depreciated to a new nine-month low of 140.70, further strengthening the bearish trend, especially after the break of the long-term uptrend line. In technical terms, the MACD oscillator is descending below its trigger line in the negative region, while the RSI currently indicates a downward trend, nearing the oversold area.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation  US presidential debate dominates headlines Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally Stocks are in anticipation mode US equity indices were mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 index recording another green day and the Dow Jones mimicking the European stock indices’ negative performance.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Bearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY plummets to new 9-month low

USDJPY confirms the bearish structure Next support at 140.20 Momentum oscillators keep moving negative USDJPY tumbled to a fresh nine-month low of 140.70 earlier today, boosting the bearish structure that started at the beginning of July. If the market ends the day below the 141.60 strong barrier, then the focus will shift to the 140.20 support, taken from the lows in December 2023. Steeper declines could pave the way for a test of the July 2023 trough at 137.20. On the other hand
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY lacks direction, looks to US CPI

USDJPY hovers around 20-period moving average (SMA) Some upside momentum still present Next move will likely depend on US CPI report USDJPY is consolidating around its 20-period SMA after the rebound from the one-month low of 141.76 quickly ran out of steam. The RSI is fluctuating right beneath the 50-neutral mark, but the MACD continues to rise above its red signal line in the negative territory.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Could US CPI tip the balance in favour of a 50bps Fed rate cut? – Preview

Market is digesting last week’s US labour market data The August CPI report could fuel 50bps rate cut expectations Dollar weakness could continue if inflation surprises to the downside The US inflation report will be published at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday Markets are preparing for the first Fed rate cut At the recent Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chairman Powell indirectly pre-announced the September 18 rate cut and highlighted the importance of the labour market in the current
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