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XM市场研究

XM市场研究 - 11小时前

Quick Brief – BoE keeps rates on hold; pound likes the news

BoE keeps rates stable at 5.0%; reduces gilt holdings as expected Policymakers remain worried about inflation risks GBPUSD jumps into the 1.3300 region  The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold at 5.0% as expected on Thursday by a majority of 8-1 versus 7-2 analysts predicted. Having kicked off its easing cycle with a normal 25bps rate cut back in August, the central bank judged that a gradual approach on the pace of rate reductions is more appropriate until inflat
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XM市场研究 - 14小时前Bullish

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD unlocks new high, but eyes remain on 1.3200

GBPUSD prints new high near 1.3300 after FOMC rate decision Technical signals remain bullish but clear close above 1.3200 is needed BoE expected to leave rates steady at 11:00 GMT   GBPUSD remains committed to closing above the 1.3200 level for one more day. The Fed delivered a surprise double rate cut of 50bps on Wednesday, lifting the pair to a new 2 ½-year high of 1.3296. Powell expressed confidence in avoiding a downturn but gave no clear indication of the pace of the easi
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XM市场研究 - 14小时前

Daily Comment – Fed goes big with first rate cut; BoE takes the torch

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch It has begun! The Fed decided to kickstart this easing cycle with a bold 50bps rate cut, and to flag more reductions before the turn of the year. The new dot plot pointed to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024, which translates into two quarter-point cuts at each of the remain
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Daily Comment – Let the Fed rate cuts begin

Dollar trades indecisively ahead of important Fed decision Investors assign a strong 60% chance for a 50bps cut Wall Street and gold traders also on the edge of their seats Pound rebounds on sticky UK inflation Fed to press the rate cut button The dollar rebounded against most of its major peers on Tuesday but resumed its slide early today as traders appear reluctant to assume a clear direction ahead of the very important Fed decision later today, when the Committee is expecte
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Quick Brief – UK inflation unchanged at 2.2% ahead of BoE decision

UK CPI remains at 2.2% y/y in August but core rate ticks up Services CPI also quickens slightly as BoE seen holding rates   The UK’s inflation data for August was largely in line with expectations, changing little in terms of rate cut expectations for tomorrow when the Bank of England is due to announce its latest policy decision. The headline CPI rate held steady at 2.2% y/y as expected, but core CPI increased from 3.3% to 3.6% y/y, beating forecasts of 3.5%.
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XM市场研究 - 2天前

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD pauses quick rebound near 1.3200

GBPUSD faces mild losses near 1.3200; short-term bias remains positive UK CPI data due on Wednesday; FOMC & BoE rate decisions next in focus   GBPUSD traded muted around the 1.3200 level and the short-term descending trendline from August’s peak on Tuesday as investors eagerly waited for the UK CPI data and the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, as well as the BoE rate decision on Thursday.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on
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XM市场研究 - 3天前

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

EURUSD speeds up to test 1.1100 area as debate over a bold Fed rate cut continues USDJPY hits 14-month low; BoJ awaited to give direction on rate hikes GBPUSD shifts to the upside ahead of CPI data and BoE rate decision   FOMC rate decision --> EURUSD The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the question is not if, but by how much it will cut interest rates.
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XM市场研究 - 6天前

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD accelerates after bouncing off 1.3000

GBPUSD remains in positive territory Holds above short-term SMAs Stochastic head up, RSI moves horizontally GBPUSD has staged a crucial rebound off the 1.3000 key level on Wednesday, holding the short-term outlook to bullish. Currently, the pair is meeting the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3125 with the next resistance levels coming from the almost two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3265 and the peak in March 2022 at 1.3310. However, a significant tumble beneath 1.3000 coul
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Week Ahead – Fed to cut interest rates, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals Let the Fed cuts begin Since the July US employment report, which sparked fears of recession, investors have been trying to figure out the size of the potential rate cut the Fed will deliver at its September gathering, and the moment of truth has finally come.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Dollar firms after CPI, euro awaits ECB, techs lead equities rebound

US dollar edges up after CPI report wipes out 50-bps rate cut bets Euro stuck on the backfoot in wait for ECB decision Wall Street rebound gathers pace as tech stocks rally Mixed CPI report disappoints US inflation fell to the lowest since February 2021 in August, but the bigger-than-expected drop in the headline figure was overshadowed by an acceleration in the monthly core measure.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation  US presidential debate dominates headlines Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally Stocks are in anticipation mode US equity indices were mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 index recording another green day and the Dow Jones mimicking the European stock indices’ negative performance.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Equities rebound but face danger from US presidential debate  

Equities turn positive, but sentiment is fragile US presidential debate today could prove market moving UK labour market data supports the pound Bitcoin gains as risk sentiment improves, gold is range-bound Stocks breathe better US equity markets recorded gains in yesterday’s session, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and euro/dollar dropped close to 1.1030 despite the fact that most participants remain uncertain about next week’s Fed rate cut size and confus
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Bearish

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD on a slippery slope

 GBPUSD hovers within critical zone Stochastics and RSI lose momentum GBPUSD has lost its positive momentum after the pullback on the almost two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3265, trading within the restrictive support area of 1.3045-1.3085, which encapsulates the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 1.2300 to 1.3265. In the short term, the market could maintain downside risks if the RSI keeps moving around the neutral threshold of 50 and the stochastic continues
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

ECB’s rate cut is expected with EURUSD staying below 1.1200 US CPI data may be another sign before Fed’s decision GBPUSD may plunge further if UK employment data disappoint ECB interest rate decision --> EURUSD Several important economic data releases and events may affect market sentiment in the next few days, following a gloomy week.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Stocks could suffer after the September Fed rate cut

US labour market data to determine the size of the first Fed rate cut History points to an increased possibility of a 50bps move Analysis reveals sizeable equities’ weakness after the initial cut Following Fed Chairman Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and this indirect announcement of the much-discussed Fed rate cut, the market is counting down to the September 18 meeting.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.
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